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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 12:58 pm 
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FC wrote:
It doesnt look like we are doing a podcast post draft so...

Devin Bush(B+)- Love him in the passing game. Love him in coverage. Love his movement skills. Plays like he is 6-3 250 pound backer. I am concerned about the run game

Diontae Johnson(D)- I really dislike the pick. He is not real athletic. He is not real big. He runs poor routes. His hands are fucking awful. 8 drops on 57 catchable balls in 2018. 10 drops on 90 catchable balls in 2017. I know many posters love him. I am not one. I accept I may be wrong...I hope I am.

Justin Layne(B)- I like his game. He can play man or off. He understands his job in zone coverage. He is a bit raw.

Benny Snell(C)- I do not like drafting running backs. That being said the kid has a ton of stud in him. He is very similar to Conner.

Zach Gentry(D/B)- He needs a lot of work. I think he may end up being a steal. Think Jay Novaeck from the Cowboys. He has ability in the passing game and I can find a tackle to be the blocking Te.

Sutton Smith(A)- He is the most advanced pass rusher I have seen coming out of college in a real long time. I think he finds a way to make the team. He is so slick and advanced with his hands. Great taking the corner.

Isaiah Buggs(F). I hate the player. Just a waste IMO

Ulysses Gilbert III(B)- Holy fuck watch his film. He is a machine. He runs around finds the ball...His path to the ball is remarkable at times.

Derwin Gray(A/D)- Skills to be great. He will move to LG. I wont be shocked if he is the future at LG. You cant coach nasty and quick feet. 4 Oline coaches in 4 years fucked him over. I think he could be great.


WTF.

Either you think Colbert should hit on every pick to be worth a shit, or you've stepped it back from your initial dumpster fire response.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 11:44 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:

Bell performed a lot better, at least as a runner. He was up and down in the passing game and he was definitely hurt by the usage under Haley, which didn't do him any favors. Conner was very good in the passing game. In effect, he'd probably be better fit as a nice 3rd down back for somebody, rather than a starter for a team that wants to run the ball in volume... but then, there's Samuels, who was even better as a receiving RB... above Alvin Kamara territory.

I stand by what I wrote: if Conner doesn't improve on his success rate and DVOA, he's not going to get more touches, and he might well get fewer touches.

JC 2018DYAR 16th, rush DVOA 2.4% (21st), suc rate 49% (24th), Pass... DYAR 9th, DVOA 15.2% 11th
LB 2017 DYAR 5th, rush DVOA 7.9% (11th), suc Rate 49% (11th), Pass... DYAR 11th, DVOA 2.5% 29th.
LB 2016 DYAR 2nd, rush DVOA 17.3 (5th), suc rate 56% (3rd), Pass... DYAR 2nd, DVOA 16.2% 12th.
LB 2015 DYAR 5th, rush DVOA 28.1 (1st), suc rate 50% (10th), Pass... DYAR 48th, DVOA -21.3% 49th.
LB 2014 DYAR 5th, rush DVOA 8.6% (9th), suc Rate 51% (9th), Pass... DYAR 1st, DVOA 38.4% 3rd.
LB 2013 DYAR 28th, rush DVOA -7.0% (28th), suc rate 47%[ (23rd), Pass... DYAR 28th, DVOA -5.9% 30th.


I think you're placing way too much value on these football outsider stats

Those stats have Christian McCaffery ranked 10 spots ahead of JC -- and CM fucking sucks.
Those stats also have CM ranked 9 spots ahead of Saquon Barkley (who is only 1 spot ahead of JC)

And Sony Michel is ranked way way below both Barkley and JC.
(and I'm pretty sure that Bill Belichick wouldnt trade SM straight up for CM in a million years.)

These weird rankings alone tell me that those stats are completely fucked up

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 10:37 am 
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steel wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:

Bell performed a lot better, at least as a runner. He was up and down in the passing game and he was definitely hurt by the usage under Haley, which didn't do him any favors. Conner was very good in the passing game. In effect, he'd probably be better fit as a nice 3rd down back for somebody, rather than a starter for a team that wants to run the ball in volume... but then, there's Samuels, who was even better as a receiving RB... above Alvin Kamara territory.

I stand by what I wrote: if Conner doesn't improve on his success rate and DVOA, he's not going to get more touches, and he might well get fewer touches.

JC 2018DYAR 16th, rush DVOA 2.4% (21st), suc rate 49% (24th), Pass... DYAR 9th, DVOA 15.2% 11th
LB 2017 DYAR 5th, rush DVOA 7.9% (11th), suc Rate 49% (11th), Pass... DYAR 11th, DVOA 2.5% 29th.
LB 2016 DYAR 2nd, rush DVOA 17.3 (5th), suc rate 56% (3rd), Pass... DYAR 2nd, DVOA 16.2% 12th.
LB 2015 DYAR 5th, rush DVOA 28.1 (1st), suc rate 50% (10th), Pass... DYAR 48th, DVOA -21.3% 49th.
LB 2014 DYAR 5th, rush DVOA 8.6% (9th), suc Rate 51% (9th), Pass... DYAR 1st, DVOA 38.4% 3rd.
LB 2013 DYAR 28th, rush DVOA -7.0% (28th), suc rate 47%[ (23rd), Pass... DYAR 28th, DVOA -5.9% 30th.


I think you're placing way too much value on these football outsider stats

Those stats have Christian McCaffery ranked 10 spots ahead of JC -- and CM fucking sucks.
Those stats also have CM ranked 9 spots ahead of Saquon Barkley (who is only 1 spot ahead of JC)

And Sony Michel is ranked way way below both Barkley and JC.
(and I'm pretty sure that Bill Belichick wouldnt trade SM straight up for CM in a million years.)

These weird rankings alone tell me that those stats are completely fucked up

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb


Did you say Christian McCaffrey sucks? I thought he looked elite last season actually.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 10:41 am 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
It'll work until he struggles vs good defenses and the board starts complaining about how the offense isn't moving and they're asking Ben to bail them out on 2nd and long and or 3rd down. It'll work until, with extra carries tacked on, Conner has even less juice for the 4 min offense, where he was... not great last year. It'll work until he inevitably breaks down from the wear and tear.

If Conner doesn't improve on his 49% run success rate (basically 4 yds on 1st down, half the remaining distance on 2nd down, conversion on 3rd down... adjusts in late-game or blowout situations), he won't end up with more touches than last year.


Most really good backs struggle verse elite defenses, doesn’t matter who you are.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 1:21 pm 
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What I think the Steelers pecking order will be at running back

I expect Conner is the starter/lead dog
I expect Samuels is the 3rd down back
Snell the change of pace back/ He will relieve Conner.

What leads me to that conclusion

Image

And this quote from last month

Quote:
Building that strength," said Samuels, who wasn't asked to do much blocking during his time at North Carolina State. "Work on that little technique. I need to get better at that. That’s one thing I always need to get better at because I didn’t do so much of it in college. That’s probably the main thing, just slimming down a bit, getting a little faster. Just working on little things that you know that you’ll need to use.”


IMO the Steelers have three talented backs...Each has a unique skill set and the Steelers will attempt to maximize the talent of each player. I believe all 3 can be 3 down backs if need be.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 1:40 pm 
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I agree with FC.

To me, Conner *should* have a short leash as the starter. I want to see what Benny Snell does in the real world before anointing him anything.

The bummer is: Conner is pretty good in the pass game. Taking him out on 3rd downs is going to make him less valuable than he was last year. I wish JC was better in short-yardage/4 min, because I could get behind him getting more snaps if that were the case. He doesn't have that natural ability to find a soft spot in a well-defended run against bigs and get an extra yard or two out of it. Samuels is not built for that, either.

I'd like to see two RB sets. You put Conner in the backfield and have Samuels as a joker, that opens a ton of stuff up. Samuels inside handoff, multiple screens on the same play, Conner running into fewer bodies, Samuels running WR routes, Samuels in pass pro and Conner leaking. I'm hopeful the new coach from NC State says, "We used these formations and it opened up a bunch of space."

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 1:55 pm 
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I expect the Steelers throw the ball on early downs...So Conner will still get his touches in the passing game.

My expectation is the Steelers will run the ball more this season....They are going to need all 3 backs

I also won't be shocked if the Steelers utilize Samuels as an H back more this season

Eddie Faulkner coached and designed some of NC State offense...Samuels finished his N.C. State career as the school’s all-time receptions leader with 202 career catches. Samuels also earned All-ACC honors twice, and finished third in the ACC in 2017 with 16 touchdowns

The one thing about Fitch that I love...He wants input into his offense from other assistants. He encourages it.

The Steelers running back room is filled with talent...It may not be the type of talent some posters like or desire.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 6:19 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
I agree with FC.

To me, Conner *should* have a short leash as the starter. I want to see what Benny Snell does in the real world before anointing him anything.



JC won't be on any short leash - he's now the "vet" in the RB room, and that room finally has some talent depth.

I agree with FC too - and JC will be our lead back.

Won't at all be surprised to see Samuels on the field at the same time as JC in the slot/HBack.

Snell will be a great reliever - hopefully Tomlin learned that running one guy for the entire game is counterproductive.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 6:44 pm 
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caveat emptor, though

Conner has to be better in situational football on every down than he was last year. He can keep that lead job all they like, but if he's not better, they will have issues.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 7:05 pm 
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Thanks, FC. I'm trying to be optimistic on Johnson but fear they think they're drafting an AB clone when AB is a unicorn.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 7:19 pm 
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Quote:
hopefully Tomlin learned


He hasn’t yet and he’s got 12 years under his belt.

Had Willie Parker go down after “running his wheels off”.

Had Bell go down with injuries not once but twice at the end of the season and neither time had an adequate and game sharp back to fill the void.

Tomlin simply does not plan ahead. He never ask “what if” and just goes about his business.

At least this time around they took a kid that actually looks like he can play RB rather than a 160 lb pip squeak even though we had a need at the position.

The injuries are part of the game. Not planning ahead by either putting together a poorly constructed roster or by simply not getting the other backs involved until it’s too late are staples of a Tomlin coached team.

I too hope he’s learned. Not holding my breath however.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 7:34 pm 
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steel wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
I agree with FC.

To me, Conner *should* have a short leash as the starter. I want to see what Benny Snell does in the real world before anointing him anything.



JC won't be on any short leash - he's now the "vet" in the RB room, and that room finally has some talent depth.

I agree with FC too - and JC will be our lead back.

Won't at all be surprised to see Samuels on the field at the same time as JC in the slot/HBack.

Snell will be a great reliever - hopefully Tomlin learned that running one guy for the entire game is counterproductive.


If they don't add a good vet TE before camp, using Samuels in that way has to be part of the plan. There simply isn't enough depth at the TE position otherwise.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Fri May 10, 2019 10:02 am 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
caveat emptor, though

Conner has to be better in situational football on every down than he was last year. He can keep that lead job all they like, but if he's not better, they will have issues.


Conner will get 80% of the action, as long as he remains healthy.

...and if he remains healthy, he'll attend his second straight Pro Bowl.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Fri May 10, 2019 10:13 am 
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I think one of the things about this group that gives me the most confidence going forward is their willingness to work and improve. Whether it's Conner working hard on his quicks and conditioning last summer, or what Samuels is doing this summer for own improvement, they don't seem to be "rest on your laurels"-type players. Whatever ceiling these guys have, I'm sure they'll work till they hit it. Snell is joining very good company.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Sun May 12, 2019 5:40 pm 
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Ice wrote:
I think one of the things about this group that gives me the most confidence going forward is their willingness to work and improve. Whether it's Conner working hard on his quicks and conditioning last summer, or what Samuels is doing this summer for own improvement, they don't seem to be "rest on your laurels"-type players. Whatever ceiling these guys have, I'm sure they'll work till they hit it. Snell is joining very good company.


Samuels and Edmunds were working out together in Florida earlier in the off season and from the video and article I read it looked like they were putting in some good work.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Sun May 12, 2019 8:28 pm 
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stillthere wrote:
Ice wrote:
I think one of the things about this group that gives me the most confidence going forward is their willingness to work and improve. Whether it's Conner working hard on his quicks and conditioning last summer, or what Samuels is doing this summer for own improvement, they don't seem to be "rest on your laurels"-type players. Whatever ceiling these guys have, I'm sure they'll work till they hit it. Snell is joining very good company.


Samuels and Edmunds were working out together in Florida earlier in the off season and from the video and article I read it looked like they were putting in some good work.


Ole Samuels may be modeling the Staley collection next season. I don't think they dress 3 rb's (aside from Nix) on gamedays?

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2019 8:51 pm 
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I believe they have bigger plans for Samuels this year. He won't be the lead dog, but his reps will certainly increase....especially in the short passing/shovel game.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2019 8:54 pm 
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I think so too DP. I think we'll see much more Samuels than Nix. If Nix even makes the 53.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2019 11:44 pm 
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The thing about Conner is that last season was effectively his rookie season, his first season as a starter, taking a large volume of snaps. Look at how he developed rapidly, as a pass protector, as a pass catcher, in the run game. The more snaps he gets, the more game time, the better he is going to get. He seems to have the right attitude, not complacent, training to get slimmer, quicker, faster. I guess I don't understand those that still hate this player, admit you were wrong and get over it already!

I agree with those that think big things are in store for Samuels. I think the Steelers are going to make a 'star' out of Samuels by using him as this elite pass catching RB/H-back/move TE. The Steelers went and signed JaySam's college position coach at NC State in Eddie Faulkner. When JaySam has talked about getting better at blocking I think he just doesn't mean pass blocking in the backfield in blitz pickup but also when he is lined up as an in-line TE, or move TE.

I can see an offense where Samuels is playing Aaron Hernandez to Vance McDonald's Gronkowski.

For all of the hyperbole of how Leveon Bell was this elite pass catcher, like a WR, wasn't that all just bullshit really? In what was it, 62 career games as a Steeler Bell had 7 TD receptions on 312 catches. JaySam in his rookie year already has 3 TD receptions on just 26 catches. I think Samuels can have 60+ catches this season and 7-8 TDs

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2019 8:13 am 
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Samuels will need to show improvement on blitz pick up. He was pretty bad last year and blew a couple of assignments that lead to sacks. Connor improved but was not great. That was the biggest drop from Bell in the offense.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2019 8:50 am 
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I understand that people get hung up on pass protection with the young RBs and yes, it was really their first year at doing it in the NFL.

It should be pointed out that Ben threw the ball 675 times, and that as a team we had 689 pass attempts. That led the NFL by the way.

As a team we gave up 24 sacks. I really have to wonder, if we were to dig in, to see if Conner and Samuels were actually that bad or if they were actually pretty good considering the volume of pass attempts.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2019 8:51 am 
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jebrick wrote:
Samuels will need to show improvement on blitz pick up. He was pretty bad last year and blew a couple of assignments that lead to sacks. Connor improved but was not great. That was the biggest drop from Bell in the offense.


I agree with Scunge that I'm not sure how often Samuels will actually play in the backfield to worry about blitz pick up.

Samuels will see a good amount of time on the field (likely at Switzer's expense - I hope) but I could see him in motion or lined up as WR/TE.

Obviously he'll spell Conner, but Samuels will be on the field plenty....and a lot of the time not as a RB.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2019 9:22 am 
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KC brings up a good point. Often times when we bring up pass protection with RBs, how often are they really doing it? For example Bell's last season with the Steelers where he actually played, the 2017 season, let us look at that shall we?

So, as a team we had 590 pass attempts.

Bell was targeted 106 times. Now he may have run how many more routes but just was not thrown the ball?? So how many times did he stay in the backfield and actually did do blitz pickup??

I would love to know if anybody has access to sites that have advanced stats to show how many pressures or sacks that Bell gave up that year and how much Conner/Samuels gave up the next season when as a team we had almost 100 (99) pass attempts??

Conner/JaySam were targeted a combined 100 times in the passing game for 2018, so not far off from Bell the year before. Yet as an offense we attempted 99 more passes. Again, it seems that the RBs were probably put in a position where they had to pass protect more often, so did they give up more pressures and sacks than Bell the year before?? Again, I don't know, but it does seem nuanced and not really easy to just say that Bell was so much better in blitz pickup, I need to see the numbers.

This sort of reminds me how people would argue with me that Bell never fumbles and how Conner does blah, blah, blah. Then I pointed out that Bell did indeed fumble 7 times in his last 24 regular season games. Is this pass protection just another myth? Was Bell that dominant a blocker or is it just sort of half myth, half hyperbole, part of the Bell PR machine??

How often was Bell really put in position to do blitz pickup/pass protection?? Wasn't it really a much smaller sample size than most other RBs? Didn't he spend much more time running routes? More than your average RB?

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2019 9:29 am 
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Scunge wrote:
Is this pass protection just another myth? Was Bell that dominant a blocker or is it just sort of half myth, half hyperbole, part of the Bell PR machine??


It was not a myth.

Fine Bell fumbled more toward the end.

Still, as an all-around, do-everything, 3 down back, Bell was damn good. He never had break away speed, but GD did the man move the chains and not lose yardage.

Bell turned out to be a douche, much like AB. Doesn't mean he was not an elite back. Likely the Steelers got the best out of Bell and he is now on the down side of his career. No need to minimize how good he was.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2019 10:04 am 
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I will go look through last year's games but I do remember Samuels getting pulled because he missed 2 blitz pickups which lead to sacks or at least throw aways in one game. Connor was not bad but he missed a few as as well.

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