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 Post subject: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Fri May 12, 2017 5:59 pm 
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I'm thinking folks will watch this in the future and laugh at our limited understanding/ignorance. I still find this stuff fascinating. Worth a watch.



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 Post subject: Re: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Tue May 16, 2017 7:11 pm 
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Very fascinating and very depressing. Our time goes to fast.


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 Post subject: Re: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Tue May 16, 2017 10:03 pm 
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While there is a lot we don't know or understand well, I think the big stuff will probably be pretty close (stuff like the sun dying, supervolcanoes are known when not if, as is a large asteroid....)

No point in looking thousands of years into the future - I give humanity 1, maybe 2, centuries before the AI Robots wipe us out. Alternatively, will "humanity" even still be a biological form in 200 years?

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 Post subject: Re: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2017 7:44 am 
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If you're a big fish loving person you may want to look into what exactly you're eating.
http://news.sky.com/story/microplastics ... r-10739835

Can we stop the massive pollution?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pla ... 6f0781d426

So, to answer your question Kodiak.... I don't believe human beings will be 100% biological.


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 Post subject: Re: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2017 11:49 am 
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Steelafan77 wrote:
...I don't believe human beings will be 100% biological.


That's technically already a true statement.

I'm thinking transference/cloning, probably more than the singularity. Wouldn't surprise me if, within 200 years, we're at least putting our brains into a new synthetic or cloned body, assuming brain regeneration becomes a reality. We'll probably be able to achieve the former half of that equation well before the latter half.

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 Post subject: Re: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2017 2:17 pm 
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Kodiak wrote:
Steelafan77 wrote:
...I don't believe human beings will be 100% biological.


That's technically already a true statement.

I'm thinking transference/cloning, probably more than the singularity. Wouldn't surprise me if, within 200 years, we're at least putting our brains into a new synthetic or cloned body, assuming brain regeneration becomes a reality. We'll probably be able to achieve the former half of that equation well before the latter half.
Humans stand a better chance of destroying the earth and life on it rather than making it better. History has proven as much. I'm not putting my eggs in one basket, and hope precautionary principals gain a foothold for the future.

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 Post subject: Re: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2017 6:53 pm 
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Off topic for a second.

Ten, who is the poor unfortunate dude in your sig?


Back on topic:
I agree with both Ten and Kodiak. We are by nature self destructive and have proven it over and over again. Past civilizations don't mysteriously just disappear. The World will out last human beings by eons. Kodiak is right. There are already folks walking around with artificial limbs. What's to say they haven't figured out how to create internal organs from simple skin cells or some other type cell.


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 Post subject: Re: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2017 12:13 pm 
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Ehhh, humans are pretty much like cockroaches at this point and would probably even survive global nuclear war if it didn't destroy the planet.

I think we have the capability to deflect or destroy a planetary-killer asteroid, except I think we've only identified like 2% of asteroids/comets flying around out there (and not even close to 100% of the big baddies).

There are a handful of supervolcanoes that we know will erupt some day, and that will likely result in hundreds of millions of deaths....worse, the resulting global food shortages could result in world wars (and nuclear).

We can probably expect a global pandemic to hit at some point, and that will be hundreds of millions of deaths and possibly lead to war (but perhaps not nuclear).

Aside from global nuclear war, I don't think man is going to wipe himself out. We've screwed this planet up plenty with industrialization, but we've also generally figured out how to fix it.

But AI might be a real threat. Not something we'll probably be able to contain, and realizing the threat long before it's too late.

Overpopulation has been a popular concern for decades, and technological advancements have always proven it folly. I think we may be a long ways from this being a reality, but eventually natural resources (not food and water, but things like copper and iron) will be a problem unless we are able to mine asteroids and nearby planets.

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 Post subject: Re: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2017 7:31 pm 
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Once the human population reaches 9+ Billion there will be food issues. There will not be enough land to grow food for so many people. Enter starvation leading to war resulting in mass death. Reducing the population by Billions. Either by leaving or simply dying off the world will still be here when we are gone...


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 Post subject: Re: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2017 5:55 am 
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Steelafan77 wrote:
Once the human population reaches 9+ Billion there will be food issues.


Scientists have been saying that for decades, and have been continually wrong.

Granted, eventually we physically won't have the land no matter how high yields are. But then we'll be building skyscrapers filled with hydroponics and vertical farming capable of feeding half a city. Both methods have much higher water efficiency than traditional land-based crops.

Then you're going to say water, but desalinization is already a proven capability. It's the energy costs that are prohibitive at scale, but we're solving energy as well (albeit at a rather glacial pace).

I think the bigger problem is likely to be raw natural resources, and specifically rare earth metals used in our favorite technologies have no substitutes, or ones much less effective.

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 Post subject: Re: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2017 3:05 pm 
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I do agree with a lot of what you post Kodiak. I get it. They've been 'continually' incorrect. That said, it only takes for them to be right once. I hope I'm not around when that day comes.


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 Post subject: Re: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2017 3:58 pm 
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Steelafan77 wrote:
That said, it only takes for them to be right once.


I don't disagree, but when these people talk about how our technology/population growth is going to kill us they always seem to ignore that technology is also the solution (proven over and over again). I think in 100 years the idea of farming open land will be like comparing airplanes to the horse and buggy.

There's no way you're going to see overpopulation become a real problem in your lifetime, or your kids', or probably even your grandkids' kids.

Energy is basically the one big thing unsolved, but that can be extended well into the future even after fossil fuels run out thanks to nuclear...

Otherwise, when the robots and AI introduce a hyper consumption curve and you have 20B people on the planet....will we have enough rare metals for everyone's cellphone?....will we even have enough copper for everyone's toaster?

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/06/24/vertical ... -tech.html
"We're growing in 16 days what otherwise takes 30 days in a field—using 95 percent less water, about 50 percent less fertilizers, zero pesticides, herbicides, fungicides,"

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 Post subject: Re: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2017 4:32 pm 
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I have seen articles on line where China has actual greenhouses and actual acreage in top of skyscrapers already. The air quality alone at the top of a 10-15 story building is far better than at ground level. Not to mention there is constant sunlight where if at ground level shadowing plays into the photosynthesis process. Collecting as well as storing unpolluted rainwater makes farming on top of high rise buildings that much more efficient to boot.


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 Post subject: Re: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2017 4:42 pm 
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Sure is a lot of overconfident optimism in this thread. Predicting the unknown has always been a slippery slope, and relying on those predictions to inform current actions is even more of a slippery slope.

Technology can solve many things. On the other hand, there are just as many things it can't solve. Especially if some of the issues it purports to solve creates even bigger problems.

Believing that humans can solve every problem is naive, imo. Humans make mistakes because we are inherently flawed. That's not gonna change in a hundred or even a thousand years.

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 Post subject: Re: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2017 4:54 pm 
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How about a billion... :P

Seriously, I agree with you too Ten. That's why I felt compelled to post that vid. It has a fiction feel to it that intrigues. I admit it is a fun exercise for me to sit back and speculate on this stuff. These unusual scientific studies that are out there make it even more satisfying. 8-) I often wonder where these scientists get their funding for stuff like this.


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 Post subject: Re: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2017 6:37 pm 
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COR-TEN wrote:
Believing that humans can solve every problem is naive, imo.


I think believing they can't is pretty ignorant of history - it's mostly only a function of time and resources. We went from the Wright brothers' first flight to putting a man on the moon in less than 70 years.

My point is simply that the doom-and-gloomers have been around a long time, and long before their predictions come true (and usually long after they've failed to come true), technology has already solved or pushed the problem much further out.

The real threats to humanity are largely the threats that have been facing us for nearly a century (or much more) - monster asteroids, supervolcanoes, nuclear war and global pandemic. And practically speaking, only global nuclear war would be likely to be an extinction event.

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 Post subject: Re: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2017 7:13 pm 
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Kodiak wrote:
COR-TEN wrote:
Believing that humans can solve every problem is naive, imo.


I think believing they can't is pretty ignorant of history - it's mostly only a function of time and resources. We went from the Wright brothers' first flight to putting a man on the moon in less than 70 years.

My point is simply that the doom-and-gloomers have been around a long time, and long before their predictions come true (and usually long after they've failed to come true), technology has already solved or pushed the problem much further out.

The real threats to humanity are largely the threats that have been facing us for nearly a century (or much more) - monster asteroids, supervolcanoes, nuclear war and global pandemic. And practically speaking, only global nuclear war would be likely to be an extinction event.
I never said humans can't solve problems, just not all of them. And inevitably creates others in the process. History has proven that.

Also interesting you didn't include global warming in the group of threats, but I guess some think we'll be colonizing mars or sum similar bullshit. I already know you think carbon buildup/ global warming is overrated and wrong. No need to delve back into that discussion. Either way, earth history obliterates life on the planet. Unless you think humans can overcome mother nature.

There is no doubt humans have a innate ability to adapt, but we aren't simple organisms like cockroaches. And technology can and will create solutions to global problems. I'm personally not that intimidated by feeding a growing population. What's getting in the way is ideology, and whether or not we as the human race, want to feed the world.

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 Post subject: Re: The World over the next Billion years
PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2017 10:30 pm 
Something to remember next time someone tries to convince you there isnt enough for everyone.

The entire world population of 7,200,000,000 could claim 2500 sqft for every man woman and child on earth and fit everyone in the state of Alaska and still have room left over. If you grew up in the 1970s your entire house was probably less than 1500sqft. If you grew up in the 1960s it was probably less than 1200sqft.

BTW. That amount left over ? Over 17,605 square miles.

Thats more than Delaware ( 2491) Maryland ( 12,407) Rhode Island ( 1212) London,England (607 ) Berlin,Germany (344 ) Paris,France (41 ) and Los Angeles,California ( 503 ) combined

World population est 2014 7,200,000,000

.....Square feet in square mile 27,878,400. Alaska =
663,238sqmi x 27,878,400 = 18,490,850,611,200 sqft / 7,200,000,000 people worlwide = 2568.17 sqft per.
.....68.17sqft x 7,200,000,00 = 490,824,000,000 sqft / 27,878,400 = 17,605 sqmi.


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