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 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2016 4:22 pm 
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Paul Krugman is the Princeton professor of economics and head of the department of being wrong about everything:

http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/09/paul- ... cord-high/

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2016 3:19 pm 
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Kodiak I dove into some St. Patrick's day expiring Russell 131 puts.

The same crowd that predicted Brexit and Trump crashes are now predicting market euphoria.

I think a great Black Friday has been priced in and will disappoint.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2016 7:26 pm 
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I'm gonna dive into some poon-tang... and also some Tyson Foods stock.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:17 pm 
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Dan Smith--BYU wrote:
Paul Krugman is the Princeton professor of economics and head of the department of being wrong about everything:

http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/09/paul- ... cord-high/


This reminds of the CNN and HuffPost headlines today about the touted and highly esteemed computer security analyst who says HRC should protest the election because he found that Trump won a lot of areas with computer polling that he "shouldn't have". Though it is noted that there was no evidence whatsover that there was a hack.

Anyway. Credentials don't mean someone can't be a partisan hack.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:23 pm 
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Dow passes 20,000 for first time...S&P about to break 2300.....going to be a BIGLY day in the markets.

If we actually do break resistance at those levels, could see a nice Feb/March. Then it will be time to get very nervous about an overvalued market (there is unprecedented optimism priced in already, on what no one knows and we won't get into that).

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:50 pm 
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As Kevin O'Leary pointed out the regional banks are up 40% since the election. There is nothing about Trump that justifies that.

Somebody robo text Paul Krugman every 30 seconds to remind him what an ass he is.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:35 pm 
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Like any stripper worth her salt, it's all about wide spreads, Dan.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:47 pm 
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Y-Town Steel wrote:
Like any stripper worth her salt, it's all about wide spreads, Dan.


Yeah, inflation and an improved economy pushing interest rates higher. That's a very, very general thesis but it makes sense.

Still, a shaky thesis (among many) built on top of a market already juiced by historically easy money.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:24 pm 
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Let's say I had the ability to tell you exactly what's going to happen with all of the economic indicators, geopolitical events, every surprise piece of market-moving news and even corporate earnings growth for 2017. Then ask yourself: would it even matter?

Your could have given this information to a panel comprised of the world's greatest investors before 2016 began and there's no way they would have predicted stock markets would have been up double digits. So why waste your time trying to predict these unpredictable events?

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:34 am 
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Y-Town Steel wrote:
Your could have given this information to a panel comprised of the world's greatest investors before 2016 began and there's no way they would have predicted stock markets would have been up double digits. So why waste your time trying to predict these unpredictable events?


Because markets DO follow long-run valuation trends. Bubbles and momentum are real, but while predicting corrections may be a fools game that doesn't mean you ignore asset allocation and risk. Implicit in searching out favorable buying opportunities acknowledges that some areas offer better risk-adjusted returns than others.

No one is saying you should short this or that overvalued market, but a savvy investor might look at trimming exposures.

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