It is currently Sat May 27, 2017 7:21 pm

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 143 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:18 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:06 am
Posts: 3407
Trump's not a fiscal conservative and I think the Fed goes to NIRP within a year.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2016 3:59 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:01 am
Posts: 6929
Dan Smith--BYU wrote:
Trump's not a fiscal conservative and I think the Fed goes to NIRP within a year.


The Fed wants to put bullets back in the gun...and has Japan has shown us over 2+ decades, ZIRP is not a good long-run monetary policy.

_________________
------------------------------------------------------
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 10:46 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:06 am
Posts: 3407
I can't help but think the market tanks next year, the first year of an admin after an 8 year President tends to be a washout and we are eight years into a phony recovery, a recession is due just because of the business cycle.

Presidents get too much blame and credit for the stock market, when in reality it has to do with things beyond their control.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 11:34 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:01 am
Posts: 6929
Dan Smith--BYU wrote:
I can't help but think the market tanks next year, the first year of an admin after an 8 year President tends to be a washout and we are eight years into a phony recovery, a recession is due just because of the business cycle.

Presidents get too much blame and credit for the stock market, when in reality it has to do with things beyond their control.


I agree with all this.

I don't understand this market. It's been juiced and propped up by historically easy money. People think Trump's economics are going to be inflationary, along with expected rate increases....and the markets rally?

Granted, the markets historically do well in periods of higher inflation. But I'd expect that to be negated with easy money coming to end. And why are small caps rallying so hard?

_________________
------------------------------------------------------
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Sat Nov 19, 2016 1:28 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:06 am
Posts: 3407
There's things I don't like about Trump's economic plan and yuge infrastructure spending and tariffs are creepily Hooverian. I hope he rethinks some of that. He constantly complained about 20 b in debt and he's going to increase that?? All of that is inflationary especially with tax cuts (which I do like). The decline in PMs makes no sense. So what if they hike rates .25 pts in Dec.?

I think the Trump economic plan working to perfection is already priced into the market. At current prices earnings would have to double in three years to justify current pricing 20x earnings with rising yields. The NASDAQ is looney trading at 90x earnings. With bond rates going up, this market is due for a nice correction and I think a historic shorting opp is coming in the next couple weeks. Yellen hates Trump and won't be inclined to constantly save his ass like she did with Obama. This reminds me of early 2000. 90+ percent of this isnt on Trump but on the Fed and animal spirits.

QQQ puts something soon I think. Maybe Russell puts.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Sat Nov 19, 2016 8:03 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:01 am
Posts: 6929
I think the only way you can justify this valuation is the markets traded sideways since mid-July....the sell-off before the election wasn't warranted or based off fear of a contested result.

From that perspective, this "rally" based recovered that sell-off plus 3-4%, which works out to about 1% per month since mid-July. So the volatility might be making this run look more vapor than it is. If you look at YTD returns of most US indices, it's a typically solid year and nothing outrageous.

I do agree that Yellen may start sucking the fuel out of the market, though. And yet it rallies. But this is the same market that rallies every time oil prices INCREASE.

The rising valuations are impossible to sustain, especially in a higher rate environment.

_________________
------------------------------------------------------
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:03 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:01 am
Posts: 6929
By the way....you guys are better than 3/4 of the people paid to write about this for a living.

_________________
------------------------------------------------------
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:45 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:06 am
Posts: 3407
The whipsaw the day after the election to me means they have no idea what they are doing and algo-bot is running the show. I see nothing deflationary about Trumponomics. Also I'm not so blindly partisan to know Trump can't deliver what the market is now expecting.

Here's an article about fake earnings that says the actual PE is in the mid 20s, way into nosebleed 4 sigma territory:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-numb ... 33636.html

Basically every stat is now a fudge, inflation, unemployment, earnings...if you do apples to apples comparisons, and think about it, you realize algo-bot is nuts.

I'm debating which is the right move now...April Russell puts or silver coins.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 1:37 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:01 am
Posts: 6929
Dan Smith--BYU wrote:
Basically every stat is now a fudge, inflation, unemployment, earnings...if you do apples to apples comparisons, and think about it, you realize algo-bot is nuts.


Yeah, the "quality" of that data is not there, thanks to extraordinary fiscal stimulus and anemic recovery (analysts tend to be more focused on labor participation, rather than the unemployment rate, today).

With supposed record levels of cash sitting on the sidelines, I think you might be right about the algo trading driving these markets.

_________________
------------------------------------------------------
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Brexit is a reality
PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:54 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:06 am
Posts: 3407
It's increasingly apparent that algo-bot thinks everything that happens in both directions is good news or more specifically algo-bot has been programmed to think this way, I guess good news includes increasing oil prices, but somebody forgot to tell the 1970s this.

This cannot end well.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 143 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15  Next

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
FORUM RULES --- PRIVACY POLICY




Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group