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 Post subject: Re: Penguins Offseason Thread 2018
PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:27 pm 
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Hacksaw Jim Duggan wrote:
-Great leader who can teach the bottom 6 guys how to play
-Crosby has always had a father figure type player to take the edge off him when the team has won the Cup (Guerin, Cullen). Not saying Crosby isn't a great leader, but I always thought he was more of a lead by example type. Cullen brings levity.

-Great 5v5 and gives that much needed depth and scoring in the bottom 6
-Makes league minimum
-Can be put into big-time situations defensively, late in games. NHL Network analyst said Cullen had the most TOI in the Penguins Cup-clinching games among forwards.
-Great playoff performer
-Won't need to play every game to be effective. Can be used sparingly and as a way to give other guys breathers
-This solves the 3LW situation in the playoffs, as Brassard or Sheahan can shift to that spot
-Defensive zone faceoff boi


I like the signing as well. Agree with much of the quoted part especially the bolded part. Think Guerin and or Roberts and how they were the cement to the team during their tenures.

I see that he is going to be a utility piece next year and if he only plays 30-50 games all the better come the playoffs.

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 Post subject: Re: Penguins Offseason Thread 2018
PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:14 pm 
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Love Cullen coming back!!


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 Post subject: Re: Penguins Offseason Thread 2018
PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 5:24 pm 
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Like that he came back, very much like that he didn't wait till I started school again in the fall to make his decision this time.

In his presser, and this could very likely be post-signing BS, GMJR said that Sully and Gonch spent a long time looking at tape on JJ and came away impressed. Again, FWIW.

Non-Pens signings? Stastny, when you look at what Tavares got, was a bargain. He should have waited on Tavares to set that market.

The money Detroit gave to Mike Green, basically a 4th line forward playing defense, is more stupid than Reaves, Hunwick and Eric Fehr combined. I felt considerably better about JJ after I saw that turd.

Not sure what James Neal's asking price is, but he may want to consider lowering it. He isn't worth JVR money. Hell, JVR wasn't worth JVR money.


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 Post subject: Re: Penguins Offseason Thread 2018
PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:14 pm 
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http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Ryan-Wil ... /177/93741

Torts gone wild, again.

https://triblive.com/sports/-topstories ... ck-johnson

Some not-so-negative news about Johnson?

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 Post subject: Re: Penguins Offseason Thread 2018
PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:24 am 
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Bling Collector Ben wrote:
https://triblive.com/sports/-topstories ... ck-johnson

Some not-so-negative news about Johnson?


Articles like this really expose how little Pittsburgh media knows about hockey and how much they parrot people who do all the work. The CORSI stat is absolutely worthless, while the zone exit stat may hold some weight. The fact these two were hodgepodged together by Benz is ridiculous.

Johnson's best year was 2016-17. That year, he started in the dzone 60.3% of the time. That's an absolutely insane number, and its absolutely insane that Johnson did so well this season regardless. Take some of the most renowned defensive dmen in the league. You'd be hard-pressed to find a player that hit 60.3% in a season. You'd also be hard-pressed to find a dman who has started with the puck in the D zone as much as Johnson in his 7 years in Columbus (56.6%). Why he or Savard didn't get Norris consideration is beyond me.

I looked up some of the better defensive dmen in the league, and none of them came close to that 60.3% number. For example: Marc-Edouard Vlasic (single season 57.8, overall 54.5), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (57.3, 52.9)

Here's why CORSI doesn't fit. CORSI is simply how many shot attempts a team makes (including blocks, shots that get through, and missed shots) (for our purposes and most 5 v 5) while a certain player is on the ice. I don't really consider CORSI an advanced stat to be honest. It's no more advanced than say OPS in baseball. Now, when a player starts the majority of their shifts in the defensive zone, guess what is more likely to happen? They're more likely to get shots attempted against them. Nearly every single player will have a significantly higher CA (Corsi against) than CF (Corsi for) in this situation. Yes, even Vlasic. Even Lidstrom. Even Hamonic. Any former or current "defensive" defensemen ever. No exceptions. What this stat doesn't and can't show is what these players did to get the puck out of the zone. Did this player give up a bunch of terrible chances while in the D zone? Who missed an assignment on the goal? High danger scoring chances is a flawed stat in itself. Expected goals is considered a revolutionary stat to CORSI. It's just another weak entry. We can take a defined high danger zone, but was there traffic in front? Did the puck get tipped by an unreal Crosby deflection? Did the goalie fall over? People always strive for some sort of baseball type advanced stats matrix that can determine a players value on a certain pitch, situation, time of day, etc. The stats in baseball are so valuable from a standpoint of identifying tendencies, struggles, and strengths. However, there is no obstruction from the mound to the catchers mitt. This is the same repeated motion over and over and over again. The ball goes from point A to B. It's called a strike, a ball, or its hit into play. There aren't 10 guys, a goalie, angles, deflections, etc. Hockey can never have a perfect stat.

So, let's do something very basic. If you're a player that's starting 60% of his time in the defensive zone, which directly correlates to having more shots against than for, and you log huge minutes on a per-game basis, why wouldn't your CORSI be ranked near the bottom of the league? Really simple stuff, folks. Every nonsense advanced stat matrix feeds off that and is going to look bad. Johnson is obviously going to have more goals against, etc. Probably the most bogus CORSI stats are QOC/TOI and CF%/QOC. These numbers are within a few percentage points of each other for nearly everyone in the league that it doesn't make a lick of sense.

Now, the question remains how much of this was a byproduct of Savard's play. Well, that's where the eye test heavily goes against Johnson. As Savard struggled to start the season, moves were made and things happened. When Cole and Savard were linked together, Savard returned to form, while Johnson continued to flounder. This highly suggests that Savard simply struggled and then got things right with Cole. Johnson didn't have Savard, and his season was terrible. The most basic of troubling stats is that Johnson has been on ice 5 v 5 for 554 goals for and 649 goals against in his career. Even with the 46.1/53.9 disparity in zone starts, that's incredibly troubling. Those numbers get a lot better in Columbus, but Johnson's only had one full season of this. For as simplistic and similarly as flawed as +/- is, a -19 with Columbus and a -109 overall player is still a -109 overall player.

So, everyone is pretty much correct in saying that Johnson needs to be paired with a safety valve defender. He can log big minutes and be effective in this manner. If he's not with a safety valve, then he needs less zone starts in the D zone and less ice time. The Penguins are likely banking on his puck mobility and the fact that they can present him with a defender that will be a bit more responsible. At least I hope. I didn't need a bunch of nonsense stats to determine this.This highly suggests Oleksiak would be a troubling partner for Johnson. Of course, watch them be the best pairing on the team. That's hockey. Who the fuck knows.

Bottom line: The 2016-17 season and the circumstances Johnson played in with Columbus and will play in with Pittsburgh was enough justification for Rutherford to sign him to what he did.

Now, do I agree this was a gamble worth it for a cap team? Well, it changes every day. We just have to watch him play. As I said before, this isn't as cut and dry as giving away money and assets for guys like Reaves or Hunwick, but it looks bad.

To recap, CORSI is a garbage stat that Adam Gretz presented that Benz parroted because he doesn't know any better. The zone exit thing is a bit more intriguing as it suggests a higher/practical methodology for how a player could be incorporated into a team's structure. This is where the Daley comparisons come into play. The best advanced stat is the eye test. The statistics for zone exits from the analytics department of the Penguins could have pointed Pens coaching and front office personnel to Johnson, but the eye test and film review was what made the trade. The importance of an analytics team is to find players that work within a shell. That's why baddies like Oleksiak can come here and perform better. That's why Daley came here. On the flipside, that's why GMs and front offices that just turn on EA NHL 18 and try to make the best overall team fail. Here's looking at you Ray.


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 Post subject: Re: Penguins Offseason Thread 2018
PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:32 am 
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For me it's not just soley about CORSI. It's all the other advanced stats AND eye test that make me meh on JJ.

BUt that being said the question: is he better than Hunwick, because that's what number we signed him for?

The answer is yes. 3.25M isn't a bad number for a guy like JJ. As mentioned before the rest of the team is gonna be trash in 5 yrs so who really cares about the term? Initial reports were like $5M for him and that's why I was freaking out a little bit.

I've also said this before: I like the Pens defensemen as individuals, but as a group they just seem completely out of sorts. Something like this changes the group's dynamic and that's a good thing.

Re: Cullen, I'm fine with him coming back but it was a year too late. Plus where does that move Sheahan and Brassard? Sheahan sucks at wing and the Pens were adamant to keep Brass at 3C.


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 Post subject: Re: Penguins Offseason Thread 2018
PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:34 pm 
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Donnie Brasco wrote:
For me it's not just soley about CORSI. It's all the other advanced stats AND eye test that make me meh on JJ.

BUt that being said the question: is he better than Hunwick, because that's what number we signed him for?

The answer is yes. 3.25M isn't a bad number for a guy like JJ. As mentioned before the rest of the team is gonna be trash in 5 yrs so who really cares about the term? Initial reports were like $5M for him and that's why I was freaking out a little bit.

I've also said this before: I like the Pens defensemen as individuals, but as a group they just seem completely out of sorts. Something like this changes the group's dynamic and that's a good thing.

Re: Cullen, I'm fine with him coming back but it was a year too late. Plus where does that move Sheahan and Brassard? Sheahan sucks at wing and the Pens were adamant to keep Brass at 3C.


I also view this as a potential contract replacement for Justin Schultz. The team is in deep doo doo cap wise next season. I feel a lot is riding on this working out for the Penguins. It also makes a lot of sense if Kessel or another big player is traded next offseason. This may be the last best shot for the Penguins for a few seasons. We need Johnson to succeed for several reasons. Same with Sprong.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Kessel traded, Brassard not giving a new contract, Sheahan given a long-term extension to play 3C, and Schultz traded next offseason. That most likely transition is made a lot smoother if Sprong/Johnson establish themselves.


Last edited by Hacksaw Jim Duggan on Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Penguins Offseason Thread 2018
PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:41 pm 
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Hacksaw Jim Duggan wrote:
Donnie Brasco wrote:
For me it's not just soley about CORSI. It's all the other advanced stats AND eye test that make me meh on JJ.

BUt that being said the question: is he better than Hunwick, because that's what number we signed him for?

The answer is yes. 3.25M isn't a bad number for a guy like JJ. As mentioned before the rest of the team is gonna be trash in 5 yrs so who really cares about the term? Initial reports were like $5M for him and that's why I was freaking out a little bit.

I've also said this before: I like the Pens defensemen as individuals, but as a group they just seem completely out of sorts. Something like this changes the group's dynamic and that's a good thing.

Re: Cullen, I'm fine with him coming back but it was a year too late. Plus where does that move Sheahan and Brassard? Sheahan sucks at wing and the Pens were adamant to keep Brass at 3C.


I also view this as a potential contract replacement for Justin Schultz. The team is in deep doo doo cap wise next season. I feel a lot is riding on this working out for the Penguins. It also makes a lot of sense if Kessel or another big player is traded next offseason. This may be the last best shot for the Penguins for a few seasons. We need Johnson to succeed for several reasons. Same with Sprong.


Good point on JJ replacing Schultz, who really underachieved last season when you look at his contract. He at times last season didn't look as commanding on the PP compared to the year prior


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 Post subject: Re: Penguins Offseason Thread 2018
PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:47 pm 
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Donnie Brasco wrote:
Hacksaw Jim Duggan wrote:
Donnie Brasco wrote:
For me it's not just soley about CORSI. It's all the other advanced stats AND eye test that make me meh on JJ.

BUt that being said the question: is he better than Hunwick, because that's what number we signed him for?

The answer is yes. 3.25M isn't a bad number for a guy like JJ. As mentioned before the rest of the team is gonna be trash in 5 yrs so who really cares about the term? Initial reports were like $5M for him and that's why I was freaking out a little bit.

I've also said this before: I like the Pens defensemen as individuals, but as a group they just seem completely out of sorts. Something like this changes the group's dynamic and that's a good thing.

Re: Cullen, I'm fine with him coming back but it was a year too late. Plus where does that move Sheahan and Brassard? Sheahan sucks at wing and the Pens were adamant to keep Brass at 3C.


I also view this as a potential contract replacement for Justin Schultz. The team is in deep doo doo cap wise next season. I feel a lot is riding on this working out for the Penguins. It also makes a lot of sense if Kessel or another big player is traded next offseason. This may be the last best shot for the Penguins for a few seasons. We need Johnson to succeed for several reasons. Same with Sprong.


Good point on JJ replacing Schultz, who really underachieved last season when you look at his contract. He at times last season didn't look as commanding on the PP compared to the year prior


I'll agree with the PP thing. Letang was actually more successful than him during the season. It's hard to judge Schultz in any other situation though because he went from being the guy with Letang out to being the second guy. He's a perfect candidate for a trade though, even as soon as this season if the Penguins get good play from the other dmen.

The reality of this is that nothing is set in stone, and as long as the Penguins have the big boys, they can likely build a great team around them.

I'm excited for the current team as it stands, but I'm also excited for any potential trades that could happen between now and opening night.


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 Post subject: Re: Penguins Offseason Thread 2018
PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:24 pm 
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Hacksaw how would you rank this Pens offseason so far? Best ever??

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