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 Post subject: What will be our final tally of draft picks?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:27 pm 
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Does anybody have the latest info on whether we might see a compensation pick for Timmons and whether we are going to get that conditional early 7th round pick from the Giants for Ross Cockrell?

With Cockrell I have no idea what the conditions are/were. He did play 62% of their defensive snaps and even played 25% of the snaps on special teams.

So, is our draft order like this:

1
2
3
5 (from 49ers)
5
5 (compensation pick, Timmons)
7 (from Giants, Cockrell)
7

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 Post subject: Re: What will be our final tally of draft picks?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:37 pm 
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We are not getting a comp pick for TImmons. WE might eke out a 7th but the so-called experts don't seem to think so.

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 Post subject: Re: What will be our final tally of draft picks?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:50 pm 
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I have tried to find details on that Cockrell trade, even while it was happening and never could find out anything. But like I said, he played 62% of the snaps, and with the Steelers relationship with the Maras and all of that, I just figured it was going to happen, that it was a done deal.

I mean, come on, did the Giants really have something outrageous where they were expecting him to start all 16 games, play 95% of the snaps, and then and only then were they going to give up the 7th round pick?

With Timmons, I don't know, I do know the most it could be for a veteran with that many years in the NFL would be a 5th round comp, but again, forget the craziness he had, the man still played 76% of the snaps for Miami and started 14 games. I don't see how we signed any free agents that just totally wipes away the loss of Timmons in the compensation formula. Maybe we get a 6th or 7th for Timmons?

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 Post subject: Re: What will be our final tally of draft picks?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:58 am 
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the thing about free agents in the calculation is that our signees don't have to be as high profile as Timmons for them to cancel out. It's more like the number of signings cancel it.

We lost:
Lawrence Timmons
Markus Wheaton

We gained:
Tyson Alualu
Coty Sensabaugh

If I understand the calculation formula right, those 4 guys will cancel each other out, despite the fact that the two lost guys have contracts ranked 247 & 332 and the guys gained have contracts ranked 485 & 813.

I forgot that the Cockrell pick was conditional... it's been widely reported as a 7th but that hasn't been confirmed.

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 Post subject: Re: What will be our final tally of draft picks?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:48 am 
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Yeah, that 7th round pick for Cockrell is actually interesting in that it is the 2nd overall pick of that round, it sort of can take the place of that 6th round pick that we traded away for Justin Gilbert, then got back for trading Coates and then lost again trading for JJ Wilcox. That has to be one the weirdest 6th round picks we have ever had (not had), to be honest it still lives on because the Wilcox trade involved them giving us a 2019 7th round pick.

I actually have no problem trading away later round picks like that. They used that 6th round pick in trade and it brought in Gilbert and Wilcox for a look see, and we still have a 7th coming next year from all of that wheeling and dealing.

I used to feel meh about comp picks but now that you can use them like any other pick, being able to trade them, I hope the Steelers do get a comp pick for Timmons.

To me I don't see how Alualu cancels out Timmons, one was a starter all season, the other was a rotational backup, one signed for $12 million, the other for just $6 million. We did lose Jarvis Jones and Markus Wheaton and both had injury prone years, but does Sensabaugh negate both of those players and help Alualu cancel out Timmons?

I am hoping for a 6th rounder for Timmons.

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 Post subject: Re: What will be our final tally of draft picks?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:05 am 
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https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

Quote:
Methodology
Adam describes the core methodology here:

Each qualifying player has a value based on his contract, playing time and postseason honors, and that value corresponds to a round in the draft. In the compensatory equation, each qualifying player that a team signs cancels out a qualifying player that the team lost whose value is the highest in the same round. If there are no lost players remaining in that round, the signed player cancels out the lost player whose value is the next-highest. A signed player will cancel out a lost player whose value falls in a higher round only if there are no remaining lost players. After all of a team’s qualifying signed players have canceled out a lost player, the team can receive a comp pick for each qualifying player who remains. For example, consider a team that loses one qualifying player whose value falls in the third round and another qualifying player whose value falls in the sixth round but signs a qualifying player whose value falls in the third round. That team would receive a sixth-round comp pick because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the higher-valued player. If the signed player’s value were equal to a fourth-round pick or lower, however, the team would receive a third-round comp pick, because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the lower-valued player.


As I said, two qualifying players lost, and two qualifying players gained.

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 Post subject: Re: What will be our final tally of draft picks?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:13 am 
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However, then there's this:

Quote:
Additional Compensatory Picks
In addition to the regular compensatory pick awardings described above, there are two other types of compensatory picks that may potentially be awarded:

The formula will occasionally award a “net value” compensatory pick for a team if that team loses and gains an equal number of CFAs, but the value of the CFAs lost is considerably greater than the value of CFAs gained. Adam once observed that the difference needs to be at least 50%, and this is the difference that OTC’s program will currently use unless additional information suggests otherwise. Net value compensatory picks are always 7th round picks, and they are always placed in order immediately after the regular 7th round compensatory picks.
If, after awarding both regular and net value compensatory picks, there are less than 32 picks awarded, the formula will award “supplemental” compensatory picks to ensure that the total number of compensatory picks is always exactly 32. These supplemental picks are awarded in the order of what would be the eighth round of the draft, if an eighth round existed.


So, best case, Steelers get a 7th because Timmons + Wheaton = almost 3x Alualu+ Sensabaugh. That seems possible.

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 Post subject: Re: What will be our final tally of draft picks?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:21 am 
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According to Fittipaldo it's 7 overall picks... http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/stee ... 1802140045


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 Post subject: Re: What will be our final tally of draft picks?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:32 am 
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An additional consideration is JJ Wilcox. Overthecap is projecting him as a FA gained (even though we traded for him) since he signed his contract with Tampa the same off season he was traded to us. I emailed them about this and they essentially said "it's common knowledge that FAs signed and traded in the same off season count as a FA gained for the team acquiring the player, even if they give up compensation". I was completely unaware of this and still not sure if it's true as I can't find another example of this happening.

I bet we get a token 7th round comp pick due to the net value rule b2b outlined.


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 Post subject: Re: What will be our final tally of draft picks?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:08 am 
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seabs926 wrote:
An additional consideration is JJ Wilcox. Overthecap is projecting him as a FA gained (even though we traded for him) since he signed his contract with Tampa the same off season he was traded to us. I emailed them about this and they essentially said "it's common knowledge that FAs signed and traded in the same off season count as a FA gained for the team acquiring the player, even if they give up compensation". I was completely unaware of this and still not sure if it's true as I can't find another example of this happening.

I bet we get a token 7th round comp pick due to the net value rule b2b outlined.

If Wilcox counts, then I don’t think we’ll get a comp pick. It would be a very close call at best.

By the way, that signing was terrible.

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