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 Post subject: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:38 pm 
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Found these stats to be a bit remarkable:

3. THIRD AND ... THROW?
A fact regarding the Steelers' struggling red-zone (31st in the NFL) and goal-to-go offense: In third-and-goal situations this season, regardless of the line of scrimmage, they have passed every time.

In third-and-2 situations regardless of location, the Steelers have thrown 92.9 percent of the time this season — more than on any third down of fewer than 10 yards except third-and-5.

http://triblive.com/sports/steelers/129 ... ake-to-air


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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:11 pm 
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These stats are meaningless without context and without being compared to the rest of the league.

I would assume that a vast majority of the time that the rest of the league passes on 3rd and 2 or greater. Especially any team with a competent QB. And it seems like we've had a lot of long third and goal situations, whether it be due to penalties or early down runs that get a yard or two or go backwards. I don't think this team will be an improved red zone unit by running more on 3rd and goal to go from the 8 or the 6.

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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:39 pm 
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TB wrote:
These stats are meaningless without context and without being compared to the rest of the league.

I would assume that a vast majority of the time that the rest of the league passes on 3rd and 2 or greater. Especially any team with a competent QB. And it seems like we've had a lot of long third and goal situations, whether it be due to penalties or early down runs that get a yard or two or go backwards. I don't think this team will be an improved red zone unit by running more on 3rd and goal to go from the 8 or the 6.


Rest of the league, OK...but what other context are you looking for.

There's a difference between majority, vast majority and 93%. That just seems like a VERY high percentage.

Obviously, no one supports running on 3rd & goal from 6 or 8...wasn't suggested or implied.


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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:45 pm 
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How often do they run vs throw on 1st and goal?

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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 3:28 pm 
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swissvale72 wrote:
TB wrote:
These stats are meaningless without context and without being compared to the rest of the league.

I would assume that a vast majority of the time that the rest of the league passes on 3rd and 2 or greater. Especially any team with a competent QB. And it seems like we've had a lot of long third and goal situations, whether it be due to penalties or early down runs that get a yard or two or go backwards. I don't think this team will be an improved red zone unit by running more on 3rd and goal to go from the 8 or the 6.


Rest of the league, OK...but what other context are you looking for.

There's a difference between majority, vast majority and 93%. That just seems like a VERY high percentage.

Obviously, no one supports running on 3rd & goal from 6 or 8...wasn't suggested or implied.


Just looked it up: the Patriots have had 10 times they've had a 3rd and 2 this year. They've passed on 9 of them. 90%. The only time they ran it was their first drive of the season against KC. Every time since then, they've thrown it.

The Saints? Have had 9 times they've had a 3rd and 2, only ran it twice. And guess what, they didn't pick up the first down on either run.

Just looked up the Lions. 10 times outside of victory formation they've had 3rd and 2. Ran it once, didn't get it. Went to pass 9 times. 90%. The horror.

Like I said, it's meaningless stat, and also disingenuous. The vast, vast majority of the time teams are passing on 3rd and 2, unless you've got some mediocre running QB. Shitty, click-bait work from Adamski.

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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:41 pm 
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TB wrote:
swissvale72 wrote:
TB wrote:
These stats are meaningless without context and without being compared to the rest of the league.

I would assume that a vast majority of the time that the rest of the league passes on 3rd and 2 or greater. Especially any team with a competent QB. And it seems like we've had a lot of long third and goal situations, whether it be due to penalties or early down runs that get a yard or two or go backwards. I don't think this team will be an improved red zone unit by running more on 3rd and goal to go from the 8 or the 6.


Rest of the league, OK...but what other context are you looking for.

There's a difference between majority, vast majority and 93%. That just seems like a VERY high percentage.

Obviously, no one supports running on 3rd & goal from 6 or 8...wasn't suggested or implied.


Just looked it up: the Patriots have had 10 times they've had a 3rd and 2 this year. They've passed on 9 of them. 90%. The only time they ran it was their first drive of the season against KC. Every time since then, they've thrown it.

The Saints? Have had 9 times they've had a 3rd and 2, only ran it twice. And guess what, they didn't pick up the first down on either run.

Just looked up the Lions. 10 times outside of victory formation they've had 3rd and 2. Ran it once, didn't get it. Went to pass 9 times. 90%. The horror.

Like I said, it's meaningless stat, and also disingenuous. The vast, vast majority of the time teams are passing on 3rd and 2, unless you've got some mediocre running QB. Shitty, click-bait work from Adamski.


Did Adamski come to any conclusions? Didn't think so...was just stating some facts.


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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:47 pm 
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LOL just admit that you were wrong. You're acting like the Steelers passing a vast majority of the time on 3rd and 2 is something unusual. You even stated as much. And you're dead wrong.

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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:59 pm 
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TB wrote:
LOL just admit that you were wrong. You're acting like the Steelers passing a vast majority of the time on 3rd and 2 is something unusual. You even stated as much. And you're dead wrong.


Seems like you're hungry for a win, TB. I wasn't trying to make a federal case, merely stating that it the percentage of passes on 3rd & 2 seemed very high.

Congrats....you've a self-professed expert analyst by examining three teams....two of whom pass the ball 90% of the time in the same spot, the other 77%. Guess that proves your case, eh?


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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:37 pm 
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The best part is you backing off acting like Adamski wasn't making any conclusions with his article, when you yourself took the conclusion he was ultimately trying to make: that the Steelers pass an exorbitant amount of time on 3rd and 2. With no context to what the rest of the league is doing. What will be his amazing stat next week, that the Steelers punt almost 100% of the time on 4th and long? :lol:

Sorry swiss, you were wrong. This is the NFL in 2017 and everyone passes in those situations a vast majority of the time. And guess what? The Steelers have been extremely successful on 3rd and 2 passing. Two TDs, only three incompletions in 12 passing attempts, no turnovers. A third and 2 pass to Eli Rogers helped win us the Colts game just last week. A 3rd and 2 pass won us that hugely important Chiefs game.

It's a dumb stat that leads to disingenuous, incorrect conclusions, just like the one you got from it.

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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:49 pm 
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TB wrote:
The best part is you backing off acting like Adamski wasn't making any conclusions with his article, when you yourself took the conclusion he was ultimately trying to make: that the Steelers pass an exorbitant amount of time on 3rd and 2. With no context to what the rest of the league is doing. What will be his amazing stat next week, that the Steelers punt almost 100% of the time on 4th and long? :lol:

Sorry swiss, you were wrong. This is the NFL in 2017 and everyone passes in those situations a vast majority of the time. And guess what? The Steelers have been extremely successful on 3rd and 2 passing. Two TDs, only three incompletions in 12 passing attempts, no turnovers. A third and 2 pass to Eli Rogers helped win us the Colts game just last week. A 3rd and 2 pass won us that hugely important Chiefs game.

It's a dumb stat that leads to disingenuous, incorrect conclusions, just like the one you got from it.


Sorry TB....you're reaching disingenuous, incorrect conclusions about my intent.

Seemed like a high number, high percentage. You've cited three other teams, two with similar percentage, one a fair amount less.

You're making a mountain out of a molehill....but please, keep digging.


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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:59 pm 
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:lol: Okay man. Keep being stunned by how "remarkable" it is when the Steelers and the rest of the league pass on 3rd and 2. I don't know why some people just can't admit when they're wrong and move on. Hell, I was wrong on Matt Elam, dead wrong on Johnny Manziel, convinced myself Jarvis Jones and Sammie Coates would be good, wanted Eddie Lacy over Bell... it feels good man. Exercise the demons. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:05 pm 
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TB wrote:
:lol: Okay man. Keep being stunned by how "remarkable" it is when the Steelers and the rest of the league pass on 3rd and 2. I don't know why some people just can't admit when they're wrong and move on. Hell, I was wrong on Matt Elam, dead wrong on Johnny Manziel, convinced myself Jarvis Jones and Sammie Coates would be good, wanted Eddie Lacy over Bell... it feels good man. Exercise the demons. :lol:


I hope I'm wrong about Mike Tomlin v. Bill Belichick, TB. That happens, I'll jump in the freezing Atlantic Ocean in February.

And again, you cite three teams' passing percentages on 3rd & 2, and equate it to the rest of the league, and at that, one of those teams does NOT match the Steelers percentage. Do the rest of the league if you really want to prove your point, whatever that point might be.

I was just surprised that the percentage was so high.


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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:31 pm 
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Times Matt Ryan has handed the ball off to a RB on 3rd and 2 this year? 0. That's 0% if you need a percentage. Passed every time other than running a failed WR reverse on 3rd and goal. How remarkable.

Aaron Rodgers? 100% of the time. Every single 3rd and 2 he passed. That's higher than 93% last time I checked. Stunning. I'm simply stunned, I tell ya. What is going on?!

You. Are. Wrong.
Let it go.

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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:35 pm 
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TB wrote:
Times Matt Ryan has handed the ball off to a RB on 3rd and 2 this year? 0. That's 0% if you need a percentage. Passed every time other than running a failed WR reverse on 3rd and goal. How remarkable.

Aaron Rodgers? 100% of the time. Every single 3rd and 2 he passed. That's higher than 93% last time I checked. Stunning. I'm simply stunned, I tell ya. What is going on?!

You. Are. Wrong.
Let it go.


And I'm wrong about exactly what, TB? Citing an article and saying that the percentage of time Steelers throw on 3rd & 2 seems high?? Gee....what an egregious error!! And keep at it, Dude...you only have 26 more teams to go until you complete your scholarly work.

Seems like the one that can't let this go is you.


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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:57 pm 
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Quote:
struggling red-zone (31st in the NFL)


Only stat that actually matters in this debate.


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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:46 pm 
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swissvale72 wrote:
Citing an article and saying that the percentage of time Steelers throw on 3rd & 2 seems high?? Gee....what an egregious error!!


There we go, about time. It's okay to be wrong every now and then. Feel better?

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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:51 pm 
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TB wrote:
swissvale72 wrote:
Citing an article and saying that the percentage of time Steelers throw on 3rd & 2 seems high?? Gee....what an egregious error!!


There we go, about time. It's okay to be wrong every now and then. Feel better?


I'm wrong plenty....just not this time. You seem to have missed that I didn't make any declaration that could be scored as right or wrong.

You're pretty fuckin' dense on this one....but that's not unusual.


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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:38 am 
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3rd & 2 or longer is a passing down. If you're running, you're not trying, or you think you're going to fool them.


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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:51 am 
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TB wrote:
:lol: Okay man. Keep being stunned by how "remarkable" it is when the Steelers and the rest of the league pass on 3rd and 2. I don't know why some people just can't admit when they're wrong and move on. Hell, I was wrong on Matt Elam, dead wrong on Johnny Manziel, convinced myself Jarvis Jones and Sammie Coates would be good, wanted Eddie Lacy over Bell... it feels good man. Exercise the demons. :lol:

That's "Exorcise"... ;)

Carry on...
:mrgreen:

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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:31 am 
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Steeledge wrote:
TB wrote:
:lol: Okay man. Keep being stunned by how "remarkable" it is when the Steelers and the rest of the league pass on 3rd and 2. I don't know why some people just can't admit when they're wrong and move on. Hell, I was wrong on Matt Elam, dead wrong on Johnny Manziel, convinced myself Jarvis Jones and Sammie Coates would be good, wanted Eddie Lacy over Bell... it feels good man. Exercise the demons. :lol:

That's "Exorcise"... ;)

Carry on...
:mrgreen:

Demons need to be in shape also... :mrgreen:

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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:43 pm 
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:lol: Nice catch.

It's 2017. Even demons are counting calories and doing hot yoga.

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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:15 pm 
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Here is every 3rd and 2 play for the entire league:

http://pfref.com/tiny/16WH3

League-wide, teams pass 67.6% vs. run 32.4%

Interestingly, runs are more successful than passes - 58.7% vs. 53.5% converted to 1st downs.

The Steelers have run 12 passes and 1 rush and have converted 9 times (69.2%) which is well above league average. The Steelers also have 3 TDs on 3rd and 2.

On a side note, I use the Game Play Finder tool from PFR all the time to answer questions like this.....you all should check it out!


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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:30 pm 
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TTP wrote:
Here is every 3rd and 2 play for the entire league:

http://pfref.com/tiny/16WH3

League-wide, teams pass 67.6% vs. run 32.4%

Interestingly, runs are more successful than passes - 58.7% vs. 53.5% converted to 1st downs.

The Steelers have run 12 passes and 1 rush and have converted 9 times (69.2%) which is well above league average. The Steelers also have 3 TDs on 3rd and 2.

On a side note, I use the Game Play Finder tool from PFR all the time to answer questions like this.....you all should check it out!

Thanks, TTP. Interesting stuff, and really like the Game Play Finder.

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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:26 pm 
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TTP wrote:
Here is every 3rd and 2 play for the entire league:

http://pfref.com/tiny/16WH3

League-wide, teams pass 67.6% vs. run 32.4%

Interestingly, runs are more successful than passes - 58.7% vs. 53.5% converted to 1st downs.

The Steelers have run 12 passes and 1 rush and have converted 9 times (69.2%) which is well above league average. The Steelers also have 3 TDs on 3rd and 2.

On a side note, I use the Game Play Finder tool from PFR all the time to answer questions like this.....you all should check it out!


Thanks TTP....appreciate the research. Sort of supports my initial statement, which wasn't judgemental, that the Steelers throwing on 92.3% of 3rd & 2s seemed to be kind of a high percentage.


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 Post subject: Re: 3rd down O
PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:37 pm 
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Not surprising that most of the teams with the most rushes have incredibly mobile QBs (Dak, Cam, Wilson, Alex Smith). Doubt many of those "rushes" are RB handoffs and are more QB scrambles on pass plays or designed QB runs. Steelers don't even pass the most, that is the Cards. If you have a competent QB who isn't a freak athlete you're passing a vast majority of the time and it should be hardly surpriising.

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