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 Post subject: Re: Remaining Schedule
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:40 pm 
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TNF is huge. Did not expect TEN and JAX to be 6-3. Lose to TEN and it becomes a distinct possibility we could end-up with a 3 or 4 seed.


I haven't examined the schedule, but JAX looks to be pretty legit. #1 in points allowed, #8 in scoring.

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 Post subject: Re: Remaining Schedule
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:15 pm 
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TB wrote:
Will-the-Shake wrote:
Quick turnaround to play a Thursday night game. These games are all about money and you can understand the players hating to play an NFL game with only 3 days rest in between. I maintain these games strongly favor the home team, more so even than usual. I expect AB to have a big game after struggling to make an impact right until the end on Sunday. If there's one thing we've learned about AB's mentality, it's that he does not like it when his numbers slip. Titans, like the Jaguars, 6-3, and poised to make the playoffs. Anyone else notice how weak the AFC is looking once you get beyond 5 teams? I have no idea who the 6th playoff team will be in the AFC. 5 teams already seem like locks, based on current record and remaining schedule.


I was thinking that way, especially since it seemed like when TNF initially came along it was seemingly such a huge advantage for home teams. But so far this year road teams are 5-4 straight up on TNF, and underdogs are 6-3 ATS. Steelers are only 5-4 ATS this year.


Interesting. I wasn’t sure about this year in terms of the Thursday games. Unless the Steelers are playing or it’s an essential SBI game I often end up missing it. For the longest time I had the impression that there were a disproportionate number of blowout wins for the home team. Not surprising that Steelers are only 5-4 ATS this year. A lot of expectation that eventually this offense has to bust loose, which hasn’t yet happened. And Tomlin has long struggled as a road favorite.


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 Post subject: Re: Remaining Schedule
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:24 pm 
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Will-the-Shake wrote:
TB wrote:
Will-the-Shake wrote:
Quick turnaround to play a Thursday night game. These games are all about money and you can understand the players hating to play an NFL game with only 3 days rest in between. I maintain these games strongly favor the home team, more so even than usual. I expect AB to have a big game after struggling to make an impact right until the end on Sunday. If there's one thing we've learned about AB's mentality, it's that he does not like it when his numbers slip. Titans, like the Jaguars, 6-3, and poised to make the playoffs. Anyone else notice how weak the AFC is looking once you get beyond 5 teams? I have no idea who the 6th playoff team will be in the AFC. 5 teams already seem like locks, based on current record and remaining schedule.


I was thinking that way, especially since it seemed like when TNF initially came along it was seemingly such a huge advantage for home teams. But so far this year road teams are 5-4 straight up on TNF, and underdogs are 6-3 ATS. Steelers are only 5-4 ATS this year.


Interesting. I wasn’t sure about this year in terms of the Thursday games. Unless the Steelers are playing or it’s an essential SBI game I often end up missing it. For the longest time I had the impression that there were a disproportionate number of blowout wins for the home team. Not surprising that Steelers are only 5-4 ATS this year. A lot of expectation that eventually this offense has to bust loose, which hasn’t yet happened. And Tomlin has long struggled as a road favorite.


Playing devil's advocate to my prior post, but I usually trust the Steelers at home in a night game unless they're dealing with major injuries.

Pretty wild to think it's the middle of November and we've only had 3 home games so far. Over half the league has had 5 home games to this point, no one else less than 4. To be 7-2 and to have 5 of your last 7 at home? Gotta hope we take advantage, and the Steelers under Tomlin have been a consistently great closing team.


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 Post subject: Re: Remaining Schedule
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:36 pm 
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Playing devil's advocate to my prior post, but I usually trust the Steelers at home in a night game unless they're dealing with major injuries.

Pretty wild to think it's the middle of November and we've only had 3 home games so far. Over half the league has had 5 home games to this point, no one else less than 4. To be 7-2 and to have 5 of your last 7 at home? Gotta hope we take advantage, and the Steelers under Tomlin have been a consistently great closing team.[/quote]

Tomlin’s ability to get the Steelers to consistently play well down the stretch has been as much of a trademark of his coaching resume as anything else. Anyone who trashes him is being very unfair if they don’t acknowledge he’s been very strong in that respect.


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 Post subject: Re: Remaining Schedule
PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:17 pm 
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Here’s a quick look at the remaining schedules for AFC teams in the mix for a bye. There are only 3. Steelers have what amounts to 2.5 game lead over likely division winner KC and possible division winner Tenn. Game against Patriots should decide home field. I’m not confident with the prospect of Pats losing one of their division games but you never know. Jags looked a bit shaky recently. They do have win over Steelers, but I’d be surprised if they finished better than 4-2 over the last 6. Relatively easy schedule but this is no juggernaut of a team. Next up for Steelers is GB in prime time. No nonsense aggressive mindset will get the job done comfortably.

Steelers:

Green Bay
at Bengals
Ravens
New England
at Texans
Clowns

New England:

Miami
at Buffalo
at Miami
at Steelers
Buffalo
Jets


Jacksonville:

at Arizona
Indy
Seattle
Texans
at SF
at Tenn


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 Post subject: Re: Remaining Schedule
PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:46 pm 
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Those schedules look pretty equal to me (ignoring home/away).

CIN and BAL really are no gimmes, especially since that week CIN's playoff chances are pretty much on the line. BAL almost always plays us tough, and THEIR playoff chances will be on the line. Of course, you have NE.

NE has PIT, and then I think a good chance they drop one of those 4 AFCE games. They won't drop 2 if home field is on the line having already beaten PIT.

JAX has SEA and then TEN. On the other hand, JAX has been an opportunistic team, and December historically is not very kind to those type of teams.


Really no excuse for PIT not to get at least the #2 seed. You don't want to catch a surging LA or BAL in a wildcard game. Now, if LA does somehow get a WC....would be an interesting prospect of them going to the #1 seed after their bye, where NE has been vulnerable in the past. But then the #2 seed might see JAX, so those scenarios are pretty equal...although I think LA would do better on the road in NE.

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 Post subject: Re: Remaining Schedule
PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:16 pm 
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Kodiak wrote:
Those schedules look pretty equal to me (ignoring home/away).

CIN and BAL really are no gimmes, especially since that week CIN's playoff chances are pretty much on the line. BAL almost always plays us tough, and THEIR playoff chances will be on the line. Of course, you have NE.

NE has PIT, and then I think a good chance they drop one of those 4 AFCE games. They won't drop 2 if home field is on the line having already beaten PIT.

JAX has SEA and then TEN. On the other hand, JAX has been an opportunistic team, and December historically is not very kind to those type of teams.


Really no excuse for PIT not to get at least the #2 seed. You don't want to catch a surging LA or BAL in a wildcard game. Now, if LA does somehow get a WC....would be an interesting prospect of them going to the #1 seed after their bye, where NE has been vulnerable in the past. But then the #2 seed might see JAX, so those scenarios are pretty equal...although I think LA would do better on the road in NE.

Chargers have to win out, for all intents and purposes-- if they do that they're just as likely to be the #4 seed as a WC. Hard to imagine they win suddenly flip the switch and become the 2016 or 2005 Steelers... but who knows.

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 Post subject: Re: Remaining Schedule
PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:24 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
Chargers have to win out, for all intents and purposes-- if they do that they're just as likely to be the #4 seed as a WC. Hard to imagine they win suddenly flip the switch and become the 2016 or 2005 Steelers... but who knows.


Without looking at potential tie-breakers, they are 1 back of BAL (who has to play @PIT), and 1 back of MIA (who has to play NE). And they are only 2 back of TEN, and KC in their division. LA has lost a lot several close games, and while their schedule isn't easy they are all very winnable games.

Last WC will probably have 8 wins, 9 max....7 is a real possibility.

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 Post subject: Re: Remaining Schedule
PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:44 pm 
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Kodiak wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
Chargers have to win out, for all intents and purposes-- if they do that they're just as likely to be the #4 seed as a WC. Hard to imagine they win suddenly flip the switch and become the 2016 or 2005 Steelers... but who knows.


Without looking at potential tie-breakers, they are 1 back of BAL (who has to play @PIT), and 1 back of MIA (who has to play NE). And they are only 2 back of TEN, and KC in their division. LA has lost a lot several close games, and while their schedule isn't easy they are all very winnable games.

Last WC will probably have 8 wins, 9 max....7 is a real possibility.

they lose the tiebreaker right now to KC, BAL, & TEN. All three of those teams are ahead of them and the schedules for BAL/TEN are so fucking lame it's hard to find enough losses. KC is fading a little but would have to pretty much collapse to get caught.

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