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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 10:53 am 
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Cowher had:

Ike Taylor
Larry Foote
Brett Keisel
Clark Haggans
Aaron Smith
Deshea Townsend

Over his final 9 drafts for comparison sake, also about 1 per year.


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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 3:17 pm 
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Few things:

1) This doesn't account for UDFAs.

Ramon Foster
Doug Legursky
Jordan Berry
Chris Boswell
Eli Rogers

2) Development of young players Steelers took from off waiver wire:

Cockerell
VIlly

3) How does this comp to rest of NFL? You can't look at this in a Steeler vacuum, need to see it as it relates to how 31 other teams did.

4) Draft position. Yes even after pick 100 draft position matters. If team X is continually drafting in front of team Y in rounds 4-7 they should have a better chance at getting a productive player.

5) Strength of class. For example: 2009 was overall a terrible class league wide & by contrast 2011 was loaded.

6) Player v just #s. If you have a shitty roster chances are most drafted players will stay on that roster. Does that mean we simply see late draftees as uniform or take into account that to make a better team's roster a late pick might actually have to play better and does that pan put long term? Browns have always had tons of late draftees on their roster but how many actually last and make a difference? As evidenced by their continual crappiness I'd surmise not many. So if a graphic tells us Browns have had more "success" with late round picks what exactly does that mean?

I know there are more reasons to add but big picture before looking a list of players: late drafted, early drafted or whatever else context is needed. Yes I realize that is long and sometimes painstaking, however, without it or even a hint of it; the validity of whatever point was attempted becomes at best a guess.

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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 3:36 pm 
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:roll: :roll:


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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 3:38 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
Likely to get one eventual starter out of the Steelers 5 100+ picks this year-- 10% chance that starter is a superstar, 40% chance that starter is a solid starter.

Likely to have two other players who stick around and contribute at varying levels. A fourth will make the roster a couple of times but not contribute much. The fifth is likely cut.

Here are the 5 picks:
James Conner 105
Joshua Dobbs 135
Brian Allen 173
Colin Holba 213
Keion Adams 248

I think Brian Allen is the eventual starter, Conner & Adams stick around and contribute. Dobbs makes the roster and does not much. Holba is the cut.


I don't think Holba gets cut. I don't think you spend a 6th rounder on a long snapper without knowing you have a plan to use him immediately. That's not a "draft a prospect and see if he develops into something better than we have" position. That's a "We either have someone who can do it right now, or we need to find someone who can" position.

As dumb as spending a 6th rounder on a long snapper is, it gets infinitely dumber if you draft a long snapper without having a spot open for him.

I think Warren is either getting cut for whatever reason, or they know something about Warren's availability we don't.


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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 4:21 pm 
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Louis Lipps Service wrote:
I think Warren is either getting cut for whatever reason, or they know something about Warren's availability we don't.

Holba is 12 years younger and counts $500k less against the Cap. That's probably reason enough.


Clan - Nice post.

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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 4:29 pm 
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Pabst wrote:
Louis Lipps Service wrote:
I think Warren is either getting cut for whatever reason, or they know something about Warren's availability we don't.

Holba is 12 years younger and counts $500k less against the Cap. That's probably reason enough.


Clan - Nice post.


That's my guess. Although, if they outright cut Warren, I'm guessing a portion of that salary still goes against our cap and the savings are going to be a bit lower than 500k (just a guess)....making that savings pretty negligible in the grand scheme of things.

But like I said, I definitely think there's a plan there, and Warren isn't a part of it.


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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 4:47 pm 
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Riveting offseason discussions on the rationale of drafting a LS.

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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 4:55 pm 
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Louis Lipps Service wrote:
That's my guess. Although, if they outright cut Warren, I'm guessing a portion of that salary still goes against our cap and the savings are going to be a bit lower than 500k (just a guess)....making that savings pretty negligible in the grand scheme of things.

But like I said, I definitely think there's a plan there, and Warren isn't a part of it.


Only $80k is guaranteed (according to spotrac), which is nothing.

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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 5:04 pm 
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Pabst wrote:
Louis Lipps Service wrote:
That's my guess. Although, if they outright cut Warren, I'm guessing a portion of that salary still goes against our cap and the savings are going to be a bit lower than 500k (just a guess)....making that savings pretty negligible in the grand scheme of things.

But like I said, I definitely think there's a plan there, and Warren isn't a part of it.


Only $80k is guaranteed (according to spotrac), which is nothing.
Warren has been with the team for a while. If they get cut him I don't think it's because of money.

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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 6:04 pm 
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Clan, it wasn't intended as an analysis of how well the Steelers have done with those picks-- more like a prediction for how much success those players have for the franchise on a year to year basis. Also, some of the success for those players came after they left here.

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