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 Post subject: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Era
PostPosted: Sat Apr 29, 2017 5:36 am 
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Willie Gay C3
David Johnson
Antonio Brown All Pro C3
Kelvin Beachum
Vince Williams C2
Martavis Bryant All Pro
Jesse James C2
Cortez Allen
Dan McCullers

All Pro denotes talent level

2 WR All Pro
2 TE
2 CB
ILB
DL
OL


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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 11:08 pm 
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One per year, basically.

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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 6:17 am 
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Thanks Colbert and Tomlin. Your point, STD?

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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 6:29 am 
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Bryant is an All Pro?


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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 8:27 am 
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Luca Brasi wrote:
Bryant is an All Pro?


All Pro talent as I noted


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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 10:04 am 
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SteelerChef wrote:
Luca Brasi wrote:
Bryant is an All Pro?


All Pro talent as I noted


That he is, I agree.


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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 10:15 am 
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Steelers Tombert picks 101-256, 2007-2016

I used Pro Football reference "Career AV" which is an admittedly imperfect measurement of approximate value of the player. It takes into account games, starts, statistics relative to players at same position, etc.

46 picks fit this category.

Summary:
AV over 50: 1 2% (195 AB 69)
AV over 20: 3 6% (170 William Gay 41, 248 Kelvin Beachum 24, 118 Martavis Bryant 21)
AV 10-19: 5 11% (226 Shipley 19, 194 Mundy 16, 132 McBean 11, 206 VW 11, 128 Cortez 10)
AV 5-9: 5 11% (151 Chris Scott 8, 188 Dwyer 8, 112 Sepulveda 7, 162 Chris Carter 6, 166 Sylvester 5, 212 Chickillo 5)
AV 2-4: 10 22% (111 shamarko 4, 109 Ta'amu 3, 115 Laundry 3, 130 Hills 3, 160 JJ 3, 241 DJ 3, 156 Dixon 2, 164 CrezButler 2, 199 LT Walton 2, 223 NicWilliams 2)
AV 1: 8 17% (159 Rainey, 168 Burnett, 169 Summers, 186 JBrown, 232 BaronBatch, 240 DavidPaulson, 246 TerrFrederick, 246 Matakevich)
AV 0: 9 20% (116 ThadGibson, 121 DoranGrant, 123 Hawkins IR, 196 KeithWilliams, 205 Ra'ShonHarris, 227 DallasBaker, 229 Ayers, 231 ToneyClemons, 242 Worthington)
never made an NFL roster or IR: 5 11% (150 Terry Hawthorne, 156 Cam Stephenson, 188 Mike Humpal, 200 Travis Feeney, 239 Gerod Holliman)

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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 10:17 am 
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A >100 pick for the Steelers has about a 30% chance to be above what henceforth shall be known as The Shamarko Line.

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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 10:20 am 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
A >100 pick for the Steelers has about a 30% chance to be above what henceforth shall be known as The Shamarko Line.


Picks >100 with an odd first name hit rate

Can someone do that analysis please?

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 Post subject: Re: Contributing Steelers drafted after 100 in the Tomlin Er
PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 10:26 am 
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Likely to get one eventual starter out of the Steelers 5 100+ picks this year-- 10% chance that starter is a superstar, 40% chance that starter is a solid starter.

Likely to have two other players who stick around and contribute at varying levels. A fourth will make the roster a couple of times but not contribute much. The fifth is likely cut.

Here are the 5 picks:
James Conner 105
Joshua Dobbs 135
Brian Allen 173
Colin Holba 213
Keion Adams 248

I think Brian Allen is the eventual starter, Conner & Adams stick around and contribute. Dobbs makes the roster and does not much. Holba is the cut.

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