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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 6:59 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
Conner did his best rushing work against poor run defenses. His output in those games was below the league average against those same defenses... and he put the ball on the ground at an unacceptable rate AND he got hurt at least once... was it twice?

He can be a nice piece, and I know he went to the blow bowl, which is a nice accomplishment for him coming off a pretty pedestrian rookie year... but let's not delude ourselves into thinking he ought to be anointed the feature back.

16th in DYAR, 21st in DVOA (2.4% above average), 24th in success rate* (49%)

* Success rate breakdown:
In general, a play counts as a "hit" if it gains 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third down.
If the team is behind by more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%/65%/100%.
If the team is ahead by any amount in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 30%/50%/100%.

Could be Snell is the guy who starts and finishes, Samuels mixed in all game long at nearly equal snaps, Conner spells them for a few series throughout.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 7:07 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
Conner did his best rushing work against poor run defenses. His output in those games was below the league average against those same defenses... and he put the ball on the ground at an unacceptable rate AND he got hurt at least once... was it twice?

He can be a nice piece, and I know he went to the blow bowl, which is a nice accomplishment for him coming off a pretty pedestrian rookie year... but let's not delude ourselves into thinking he ought to be anointed the feature back.

16th in DYAR, 21st in DVOA (2.4% above average), 24th in success rate* (49%)

* Success rate breakdown:
In general, a play counts as a "hit" if it gains 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third down.
If the team is behind by more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%/65%/100%.
If the team is ahead by any amount in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 30%/50%/100%.

Could be Snell is the guy who starts and finishes, Samuels mixed in all game long at nearly equal snaps, Conner spells them for a few series throughout.


:lol:

Conner's first year of real action. His first serious playing time and he only goes to the Pro Bowl. Scored how many TD's?

12 fucking rushing TD's.

How many times did Le'Veon Bell score as many TD's in an entire season as Conner?

Conner also had 9 carries of 20+ yards in an injury shortened season. Bell had what, 2 or 3 in his last full season?

....and you think Conner is going to lose time to Samuels and Snell (not due to injury) next year?

Good lord.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 7:13 pm 
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He wasn't as good as the volume stats show. The fact that he scored more than Bell is great, but he got about what an average RB would have gotten behind that line... and less than average when you take play and game situation into account.

If he's an average performer in year one, sure he might get better... but I hardly think his job should be secure as if he's Alvin Kamara.

There were 21 RBs in the NFL who had at least 100 carries and a success rate higher than Conner. That tells you that situationally, he's worse than average. He's getting fed the football and runs behind the best OL in the NFL.

Nice kid, great inspirational story... average NFL RB.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 7:39 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
He wasn't as good as the volume stats show. The fact that he scored more than Bell is great, but he got about what an average RB would have gotten behind that line... and less than average when you take play and game situation into account.

If he's an average performer in year one, sure he might get better... but I hardly think his job should be secure as if he's Alvin Kamara.

There were 21 RBs in the NFL who had at least 100 carries and a success rate higher than Conner. That tells you that situationally, he's worse than average. He's getting fed the football and runs behind the best OL in the NFL.

Nice kid, great inspirational story... average NFL RB.


He was "average" in his first year as a starter (averaged 4.5 ypc.).

In an injury shortened season.

Scored 13 fucking TD's and you're ready to move Snell and Samuels ahead of this kid.

This average NFL RB probably ends the season with close to 20 rushing TD's had he stayed healthy.

Probably 1300 to 1400 yards rushing.

Only caught 55 passes for nearly 500 yards.

How many more catches does he have if he isn't injured.

...and that's "average".

Unbelievable.

I assure you, there is NO WAY IN FUCKING HELL Conner is replaced as the starter by either Samuels or Snell, unless Conner is injured.

Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 7:42 pm 
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Depending on how Snell looks, I wouldn't be surprised if Samuels is inactive most gamedays. A surgically repaired Switzer may make him expendable.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 8:08 pm 
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Lynch wrote:
Depending on how Snell looks, I wouldn't be surprised if Samuels is inactive most gamedays. A surgically repaired Switzer may make him expendable.


No way.
I expect to see more of Samuels.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 8:30 pm 
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I wasn't a fan of Samuels, but the kid showed he belongs last year.

Not using him would be dumb.

How many years are we going to run our RB into the ground so that our group limps to the finish line when we need them the most? C'mon Tomlin, you've been my guy but open your eyes.

No reason that all three RBs shouldn't see a ton of work this year. Keep em healthy, fresh, and motivated.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 10:25 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
Conner did his best rushing work against poor run defenses. His output in those games was below the league average against those same defenses... and he put the ball on the ground at an unacceptable rate AND he got hurt at least once... was it twice?

He can be a nice piece, and I know he went to the blow bowl, which is a nice accomplishment for him coming off a pretty pedestrian rookie year... but let's not delude ourselves into thinking he ought to be anointed the feature back.

16th in DYAR, 21st in DVOA (2.4% above average), 24th in success rate* (49%)

* Success rate breakdown:
In general, a play counts as a "hit" if it gains 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third down.
If the team is behind by more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%/65%/100%.
If the team is ahead by any amount in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 30%/50%/100%.

Could be Snell is the guy who starts and finishes, Samuels mixed in all game long at nearly equal snaps, Conner spells them for a few series throughout.

C’mon man...


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2019 10:48 am 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
Conner did his best rushing work against poor run defenses. His output in those games was below the league average against those same defenses

I'm with you on the fumbling piece, but you've lost me here.

Conner put up 160+ and a TD against the league's best defense. He was well over 5 yds/carry against Atlanta, Cincy, Cleveland (2nd game), and Carolina - all higher than those teams gave up on average. Conner's 135 and 146 against Cleveland were the most yards they gave up to a single RB this year.

Sure he had some poor games, but you can say that about any RB.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2019 4:15 pm 
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Pabst wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
Conner did his best rushing work against poor run defenses. His output in those games was below the league average against those same defenses

I'm with you on the fumbling piece, but you've lost me here.

Conner put up 160+ and a TD against the league's best defense. He was well over 5 yds/carry against Atlanta, Cincy, Cleveland (2nd game), and Carolina - all higher than those teams gave up on average. Conner's 135 and 146 against Cleveland were the most yards they gave up to a single RB this year.

Sure he had some poor games, but you can say that about any RB.

We're defining "best defense" differently. Conner's two best games analytically were vs the Cleveland Browns. The Browns were 25th in the NFL in run defense, but just a shade better than average. Conner had two above average games vs the Browns. He gained right around the average number of yards expected vs ATL, CIN, & BAL #2, but otherwise was below the average... in some cases far below the average.

vs the two best run defenses he faced (#6 BAL & #7 JAX):
3 G 42/151 0TD 3.6 YPC

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2019 4:57 pm 
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By league's best defense I meant Baltimore. Conner was fantastic in the 2nd meeting. I was listing the Cleveland games as other strong performances.

Yes, I agree that Conner didn't play well vs. Jacksonville.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2019 5:19 pm 
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Article talking about something nobody has mentioned when it comes to Conner and the offense of last season vs what we could see next season.
https://steelerswire.usatoday.com/2019/05/06/one-big-change-will-help-steelers-rb-james-conner-the-most/
Quote:
One big change will help Steelers RB James Conner the most

By: Curt Popejoy | May 6, 2019 1:00 am ET

Last season marked another milestone for Pittsburgh Steelers running back James Conner. Conner took over the starting running back job and despite a limited workload, put together a very good season. Conner rushed for 973 yards and chipped in 497 yards receiving, as well. But there is one big reason fans should be optimistic 2019 will be much better for the young tailback.

The Steelers went into the 2018 offseason preparing for a rushing attack which included Le’Veon Bell. We all watched Bell sit out training camp and the preseason, but everyone assumed he would show up. Bell and Conner are different types of runners and the Steelers built an offense for Bell, not Conner.

This went on for half of the regular season before Bell closed the door on a return and opted to forfeit the season. It was too late to make significant changes, so Conner simply had to ride out the year. He basically operated in an offense built for a different type of runner.

But this time around, Conner doesn’t have to look over his shoulder. And the Steelers’ coaches can put in a scheme and system better suited to Conner’s game. This should give coaches more confidence to bump up Conner’s workload during the season. The ultimate benefit of this is to help balance things out and keep defenses honest.


I think the thought behind this has merit. Will Fichtner adjust his offense to suit Conner's strength and ability or just dust off the plans from last year?


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2019 5:45 pm 
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It'll work until he struggles vs good defenses and the board starts complaining about how the offense isn't moving and they're asking Ben to bail them out on 2nd and long and or 3rd down. It'll work until, with extra carries tacked on, Conner has even less juice for the 4 min offense, where he was... not great last year. It'll work until he inevitably breaks down from the wear and tear.

If Conner doesn't improve on his 49% run success rate (basically 4 yds on 1st down, half the remaining distance on 2nd down, conversion on 3rd down... adjusts in late-game or blowout situations), he won't end up with more touches than last year.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2019 6:20 pm 
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Lynch wrote:
Depending on how Snell looks, I wouldn't be surprised if Samuels is inactive most gamedays. A surgically repaired Switzer may make him expendable.


Depends if you can find a way to surgically install some parts of Switzer onto a 1990 Barry Sanders.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2019 6:33 pm 
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Conner will be the feature back.

He'll be spelled here and there, by Samuels.

Barring injuries, Snell will basically watch this season and play teams.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2019 6:46 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
He wasn't as good as the volume stats show. The fact that he scored more than Bell is great, but he got about what an average RB would have gotten behind that line... .


so basically you're saying L'veon Bell also sucks and is worse than JC because he was running behind an even better OL with a HOF QB.

I think you're also saying that anyone could run with similar stats behind this OL -- but then you would need to explain the cesspool of shitty RBs who couldn't successfully run behind this OL over the years (Ridley, Josh Harris etc. etc. etc.)

I think the problem is, the stats you're using - they don't capture what our eyes can see, and that's the problem.

Stats are useful when they can tell us things that our eyes don't -- but then when you over-focus on the stats and forget about your eyes, you make terrible observations and reach stupid conclusions like yours.


Last edited by steel on Tue May 07, 2019 6:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2019 6:47 pm 
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KC wrote:
Conner will be the feature back.

He'll be spelled here and there, by Samuels.

Barring injuries, Snell will basically watch this season and play teams.


this is correct


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2019 7:51 pm 
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steel wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
He wasn't as good as the volume stats show. The fact that he scored more than Bell is great, but he got about what an average RB would have gotten behind that line... .


so basically you're saying L'veon Bell also sucks and is worse than JC because he was running behind an even better OL with a HOF QB.

I think you're also saying that anyone could run with similar stats behind this OL -- but then you would need to explain the cesspool of shitty RBs who couldn't successfully run behind this OL over the years (Ridley, Josh Harris etc. etc. etc.)

I think the problem is, the stats you're using - they don't capture what our eyes can see, and that's the problem.

Stats are useful when they can tell us things that our eyes don't -- but then when you over-focus on the stats and forget about your eyes, you make terrible observations and reach stupid conclusions like yours.


Bell performed a lot better, at least as a runner. He was up and down in the passing game and he was definitely hurt by the usage under Haley, which didn't do him any favors. Conner was very good in the passing game. In effect, he'd probably be better fit as a nice 3rd down back for somebody, rather than a starter for a team that wants to run the ball in volume... but then, there's Samuels, who was even better as a receiving RB... above Alvin Kamara territory.

I stand by what I wrote: if Conner doesn't improve on his success rate and DVOA, he's not going to get more touches, and he might well get fewer touches.

JC 2018DYAR 16th, rush DVOA 2.4% (21st), suc rate 49% (24th), Pass... DYAR 9th, DVOA 15.2% 11th
LB 2017 DYAR 5th, rush DVOA 7.9% (11th), suc Rate 49% (11th), Pass... DYAR 11th, DVOA 2.5% 29th.
LB 2016 DYAR 2nd, rush DVOA 17.3 (5th), suc rate 56% (3rd), Pass... DYAR 2nd, DVOA 16.2% 12th.
LB 2015 DYAR 5th, rush DVOA 28.1 (1st), suc rate 50% (10th), Pass... DYAR 48th, DVOA -21.3% 49th.
LB 2014 DYAR 5th, rush DVOA 8.6% (9th), suc Rate 51% (9th), Pass... DYAR 1st, DVOA 38.4% 3rd.
LB 2013 DYAR 28th, rush DVOA -7.0% (28th), suc rate 47%[ (23rd), Pass... DYAR 28th, DVOA -5.9% 30th.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2019 9:01 pm 
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Ice wrote:
Lynch wrote:
Depending on how Snell looks, I wouldn't be surprised if Samuels is inactive most gamedays. A surgically repaired Switzer may make him expendable.


Depends if you can find a way to surgically install some parts of Switzer onto a 1990 Barry Sanders.


A 2010 Barry Sanders would probably be a pretty big improvement.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2019 10:00 pm 
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Can you tell that Conner isn't a "B2Ber?" Senquez Golson was, though.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2019 10:29 pm 
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steel wrote:

I think the problem is, the stats you're using - they don't capture what our eyes can see, and that's the problem.


Actually B2B stats are closer to what my eyes see than not (btw, what happened to those weekly stat threads glorifying conner after mid year). I'm not as down on conner as B2B, but let's be real.

1. Unclutch fumbles
2. Two for 2 on incomplete season due to health issues

Good piece to have, can do quite a bit well, I question his durability. Good effort guy, good character guy. Best for his own career (and for the team) if this team is able to go 3-headed monster.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2019 11:41 pm 
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I hate to break it to you Himmlers, but we are abolutely NOT going to use multiple backs to any real extent. Conner will carry the load, and Samuels or Snell will get a series here or there. The other will be inactive most likely.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 6:54 am 
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KC wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
He wasn't as good as the volume stats show. The fact that he scored more than Bell is great, but he got about what an average RB would have gotten behind that line... and less than average when you take play and game situation into account.

If he's an average performer in year one, sure he might get better... but I hardly think his job should be secure as if he's Alvin Kamara.

There were 21 RBs in the NFL who had at least 100 carries and a success rate higher than Conner. That tells you that situationally, he's worse than average. He's getting fed the football and runs behind the best OL in the NFL.

Nice kid, great inspirational story... average NFL RB.


He was "average" in his first year as a starter (averaged 4.5 ypc.).

In an injury shortened season.

It's weird, I don't see anyone talk so highly of Samuels and yet so lowly of Conner.

Conner is the lead back on this team, and the clear cut leader in carries and touches going forward. Samuels can spell him for about 8-10 touches...

Scored 13 fucking TD's and you're ready to move Snell and Samuels ahead of this kid.

This average NFL RB probably ends the season with close to 20 rushing TD's had he stayed healthy.

Probably 1300 to 1400 yards rushing.

Only caught 55 passes for nearly 500 yards.

How many more catches does he have if he isn't injured.

...and that's "average".

Unbelievable.

I assure you, there is NO WAY IN FUCKING HELL Conner is replaced as the starter by either Samuels or Snell, unless Conner is injured.

Ain't. Gonna. Happen.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 10:27 am 
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This thread is comical.

There are people shitting on this draft already yet they loved players like Artie Burns, Senquez Golson, Bud Dupree, Brian Allen etc.

Those same posters said Decastro would be a bust, TJ Watt was a one year wonder, James Conner was a sympathy pick, Ryan Shazier was too small etc.

Keep it coming gentlemen, thoroughly enjoying this.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 11:18 am 
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It doesnt look like we are doing a podcast post draft so...

Devin Bush(B+)- Love him in the passing game. Love him in coverage. Love his movement skills. Plays like he is 6-3 250 pound backer. I am concerned about the run game

Diontae Johnson(D)- I really dislike the pick. He is not real athletic. He is not real big. He runs poor routes. His hands are fucking awful. 8 drops on 57 catchable balls in 2018. 10 drops on 90 catchable balls in 2017. I know many posters love him. I am not one. I accept I may be wrong...I hope I am.

Justin Layne(B)- I like his game. He can play man or off. He understands his job in zone coverage. He is a bit raw.

Benny Snell(C)- I do not like drafting running backs. That being said the kid has a ton of stud in him. He is very similar to Conner.

Zach Gentry(D/B)- He needs a lot of work. I think he may end up being a steal. Think Jay Novaeck from the Cowboys. He has ability in the passing game and I can find a tackle to be the blocking Te.

Sutton Smith(A)- He is the most advanced pass rusher I have seen coming out of college in a real long time. I think he finds a way to make the team. He is so slick and advanced with his hands. Great taking the corner.

Isaiah Buggs(F). I hate the player. Just a waste IMO

Ulysses Gilbert III(B)- Holy fuck watch his film. He is a machine. He runs around finds the ball...His path to the ball is remarkable at times.

Derwin Gray(A/D)- Skills to be great. He will move to LG. I wont be shocked if he is the future at LG. You cant coach nasty and quick feet. 4 Oline coaches in 4 years fucked him over. I think he could be great.

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