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 Post subject: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:43 pm 
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I was reading some statistic/analysis of the Steelers 2018 season. They were actually the league's best in several categories, most interestingly: most yards for and least yards against vs what their opponents gained or gave up. A chart of everyone in the NFL looks like this:

https://twitter.com/NFLsharpTampa/status/1123026187515830272

Steelers are in the green (top of the NFL in points differential, also.

They were near the top in Sacks/pressures, TDs per drive, RZ percentage, and even turnover differential vs what their opponents usually gave up/took away.

Basically, they were near the bottom in only four categories:

• FG kicking expected points
• turnovers created
• Middle of the field pass coverage
• overall Special Teams

If the loss of AB can be managed with spreading the ball around, and IF Bush plays to his draft status, and IF our STs are simply average... there's a good chance the Steelers improve their record, just based on reversion on some of those close plays, ball bounces, etc.

If I knew that the Steelers were going to be okay vs the run and that Bush and whoever is the extra safety are going to make a difference in the deep middle pass coverage (they might, simply by the FS having less to worry about in front of him), then I'd even go as far as 11-5 or 12-4.

I think reports of the Steelers demise are premature. Going to be an interesting offseason, preseason, and season.

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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:04 pm 
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The funny thing about special teams is that Switz was in the Top 10 for punt and kick returns. But it depends what column you want to sort on. Total yards he is in the top 10, average he is not.

You can make a pretty good argument for both columns. He had a heavy amount of returns relative to the grouping if I remember correctly.

I think you just stick with him and call it a day for about half the season, then start working one of the new guys in at non critical times. Again 60% of the time take the Auto25 100% of the time on the kickoffs.


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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:08 pm 
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LakecrestSteeler wrote:
The funny thing about special teams is that Switz was in the Top 10 for punt and kick returns. But it depends what column you want to sort on. Total yards he is in the top 10, average he is not.

You can make a pretty good argument for both columns. He had a heavy amount of returns relative to the grouping if I remember correctly.

I think you just stick with him and call it a day for about half the season, then start working one of the new guys in at non critical times. Again 60% of the time take the Auto25 100% of the time on the kickoffs.


I go by DVOA... how did your return units do vs the average ST coverage units. In that Switzer was 16th. That's... what's the word?

UPGRADEABLE.

I think Switzer will really struggle to make this roster. He made some nice contributions last year as a role player, but I think I'd rather have Eli Rogers in the absence of AB.

JuJu
Moncrief
Washington
Johnson
Eli Rogers

Is a nice unit actually. One of the fringe guys or one of the horde of WRs that are going to be cut by the Saints would be an upgrade over Switzer.

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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:55 pm 
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Why don’t we do what should have been done a long time ago and hire a better special teams coach? Why does Mike Tomlin have a hole where his ballsack should be?


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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:00 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
LakecrestSteeler wrote:
The funny thing about special teams is that Switz was in the Top 10 for punt and kick returns. But it depends what column you want to sort on. Total yards he is in the top 10, average he is not.

You can make a pretty good argument for both columns. He had a heavy amount of returns relative to the grouping if I remember correctly.

I think you just stick with him and call it a day for about half the season, then start working one of the new guys in at non critical times. Again 60% of the time take the Auto25 100% of the time on the kickoffs.


I go by DVOA... how did your return units do vs the average ST coverage units. In that Switzer was 16th. That's... what's the word?

UPGRADEABLE.

I think Switzer will really struggle to make this roster. He made some nice contributions last year as a role player, but I think I'd rather have Eli Rogers in the absence of AB.

JuJu
Moncrief
Washington
Johnson
Eli Rogers

Is a nice unit actually. One of the fringe guys or one of the horde of WRs that are going to be cut by the Saints would be an upgrade over Switzer.


No way dude. Switzer stays. He's too valuable coming out of the backfield.

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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:06 pm 
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Orangesteel wrote:
Why don’t we do what should have been done a long time ago and hire a better special teams coach? Why does Mike Tomlin have a hole where his ballsack should be?

They must think it's personnel and not coaching. I'm inclined to agree.

Question is:
Who's drafting these "pretty much for STs" day 3 picks?
Who's deciding which STs players fill out the end of the roster?
Who's fixing stuff when it goes wrong?

Our STs are a TEAM effort, and the bottom of our roster undeniably can be upgraded. Will it be? Probably not much.

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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:24 pm 
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Fans don't want to hear it because Tomlin is a moron and the worst coach in football and OMG I can't believe he challenged that and "unleash hell" and we would've had 57 seconds left instead of 49 if he'd just and why isn't he like Belichick... but if Boswell kicks last year like he did the year before this team would've won 11+ games and been in a good position to compete for the AFC crown.

God awful turnover margin, some bad bounces and breaks with some dog shit calls by the refs, and terrible special teams. People can bitch and extrapolate all they want but that's the truth. What that means for this coming year? Time will tell, but for me it still means that this team can be an elite AFC team.

I also like Eli Rogers over Switzer. He could be a real key to the season if Washington doesn't take two or three steps forward and if Diontae Johnson struggles as a rook. He's a guy who is better than what most fans realize, knows how to get open, and can be a dependable option for Ben when Juju is getting a lot more attention now. We've got a TON of inexperience at the WR position now. Eli isn't Jericho Cotchery, but he's been around the block a few times. I fear they fell in love with Switzer and see him being more of a chess piece compared to how much they like Rogers, but we should keep 6 WRs this year.

I can see Rogers getting traded this August for a late rounder, which would be a mistake IMO.

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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:27 pm 
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I'm not that sure I would want to compare the season's and come to any conclusions just yet. Different players, different coaching staff in some situations. Or same old coaches doing what they do, pick your poison. A lot can happen between now and season opener personnel wise for example. Also its a different strength of schedule, playing different teams. Playing west coast teams out west. I get it..., in a vacuum the issues that they have had should show improvement but it may not be as noticeably improved/helpful if they're still susceptible to dropping those head scratcher games to the bottom dwelling drecks of the league. All I'm saying is I'm in a wait and see mode. While I hope for what you outline in your post B2B, for me it's One game at a time. I'd love to see improvement on ST's, pass defense/turnovers and stopping the run, and will certainly be rooting for that improvement starting in preseason. I'm not simply dismissing your points and optimism B2B, I guess color me skeptical at this point.


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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:09 pm 
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TB wrote:
Fans don't want to hear it because Tomlin is a moron and the worst coach in football and OMG I can't believe he challenged that and "unleash hell" and we would've had 57 seconds left instead of 49 if he'd just and why isn't he like Belichick... but if Boswell kicks last year like he did the year before this team would've won 11+ games and been in a good position to compete for the AFC crown.

God awful turnover margin, some bad bounces and breaks with some dog shit calls by the refs, and terrible special teams. People can bitch and extrapolate all they want but that's the truth. What that means for this coming year? Time will tell, but for me it still means that this team can be an elite AFC team.

I also like Eli Rogers over Switzer. He could be a real key to the season if Washington doesn't take two or three steps forward and if Diontae Johnson struggles as a rook. He's a guy who is better than what most fans realize, knows how to get open, and can be a dependable option for Ben when Juju is getting a lot more attention now. We've got a TON of inexperience at the WR position now. Eli isn't Jericho Cotchery, but he's been around the block a few times. I fear they fell in love with Switzer and see him being more of a chess piece compared to how much they like Rogers, but we should keep 6 WRs this year.

I can see Rogers getting traded this August for a late rounder, which would be a mistake IMO.


Poor takeaway numbers, poor STs, stupid mistakes that cost a game or two each year and lackluster playoff performances are not one offs. I expect more of the same.


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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:51 pm 
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I had made a comment in another thread about special teams and how we really need to get rid of the Eli Rogers, Tyler Matakevichs, and Jordan Dangerfields.

Eli Rogers?? I have never understood the love for him. I think he is a bum. To me that first season of his is a fluke and not indicative of who he is as a player. The past two seasons show what he is as a player, underwhelming.

In 2017 he was targeted 36 times and had 18 catches. That 50% catch rate is more than pathetic for a slot WR.

Yeah, he improved that some this past season he was targeted 14 times and caught 12 passes, for an 85% catch rate. Yeehawww!!!!

Oh, wait, he averaged 6.6 yards per catch?? That can't be right can it?? I mean come on, Rosie Nix our fullback averaged 9.5 yards per catch, Conner averaged 9.0 yards.

6.6 yards per catch is not going to get it done if you are a WR. Rogers failed to have a single catch go over 20+ yards the past two years. His longest was just 18 yards. All of this despite knowing the offense, despite have a special relationship/rapport with Big Ben!!!! Right.

The sooner he is cut the better. He offers nothing as a punt returner, he has no balls. Say what you want about Switzer but he did not decline to field punts and watch them roll along into our 10, our 5 yard line like Rogers did so often.

Switz has 35 kick returns over 20+ yards, and 1 over 40+ yards (61 yards), Rogers has no kick returns.
Switz has 5 punt returns over 20+ yards, and 1 over 40+ yards (83 yard TD), Rogers has a mere 2 punt returns over 20+ yards.

Rogers has nothing on Switz as a WR and nothing on him as a return man. Having more than one return man is a great thing to have, having Johnson and Switz share/split those duties is good for the team depth wise.

With Barron, Bush and Williams you are 3 deep at ILB, Tyler Matakevich is never going to see the field defensively. If you keep 5 ILBs, then those last two should be young, fast athletic special teams monsters. Dirty Red runs a 4.8 is it? He sure looks and plays slower than that. We need the speed and agility that Sutton Smith and Ulysees Gilbert can provide.

Jordan Dangerfield?? Again, slow, slow, slow and stupid too. He along with Bey would get timely penalties to eliminate a decent/great return.

There are numerous questions I have on defense.

Is it a foregone conclusion that Vince Williams is going to remain a starter?? Would a tandem of Barron and Bush be the two best ILBs that we can put on the field?? How often did we see teams check out of runs on early downs to isolate and exploit Vince Williams in coverage? Do the Steelers go with Barron and Bush as the starters and Williams only comes in for relief occasionally to give them a blow on early run downs??

Of all of the players the one that is really intriguing is Sutton Smith. Yes, Bush and Layne, I get that but imagine a player like Sutton Smith who could stealthily come on in package defenses and really thrive. The Steelers love to blitz their ILBs, to generate pass rush from them, and here is a guy who is just sudden and quick and relentless. Him going against NFL tackles yeah, he might struggle, but to be an interior blitzer where a TE or RB or FB has to deal with him?? He could very well end up with 6-7 sacks as a rookie. And you look at what he does on special teams, blocked punts in college, this one single player could very well generate 4-5 turnovers on special teams/sub package defense.

If Justin Layne develops rapidly or is ready to play some outside CB in packages, does Steven Nelson supplant Mike Hilton and/or Cam Sutton as a slot CB?? Could they even use Nelson as a 3rd safety? He is very good against the run, very physical, I can see them moving him around in sub packages.

Mike Hilton could very well be on the outside looking in and be playing for some other team in 2020. I can envision Cam Sutton being groomed to backup Sean Davis at FS, I don't see anybody else on the roster currently who can step in and do a respectable job if Davis is injured. Sutton has been praised for his smarts and ability to communicate. The FS position has many, many players starting in the NFL that are Cam Sutton's size and dimensions, so don't discount him for that.

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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 2:04 am 
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If Switzer does make the 2019 roster after the needed additions in the back 7 that will require requisite slots on game day while coupled with the new MACTION factor weapon ....then we have a MAJOR fundamental problem in the operations department.

SWITZER fucking blows IMHO.


I see absolutely zero reason that we can't win 11 games during this campaign with the new additions from the haul and FA.


Firmly believe that we now have the best RB room in the division with the addition of Snell and what he can do from a tactical standpoint. He is a Jordan Howard clone and fits perfectly with the crew.


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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 2:34 am 
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I guess I don't understand why people are so concerned about the numbers at WR.

Brown is gone, Bey is gone, Hunter is gone.

So, you have JuJu, Washington, Moncrief, Johnson and Switzer. 5 WRs, no need to cary 6 or keep Eli Rogers as that 6th. Moncrief had almost 200 snaps on special teams as a Colts rookie and I can see Danny Smith using his size and speed to replace Darius Heyward Bey on special teams. Johnson and Switzer can return punts and kicks.

You don't need to deactivate anybody if you carry just 5 WRs. Yes, you can have that 6th WR but keep him on the practice squad.

Again, Eli Rogers averaged 6.6 yards per catch last season, in what universe is that acceptable for a WR? In what parallel universe is that worthy of having on your 53 man roster?? That truly fucking blows, ironzabo.

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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 2:42 am 
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Scunge first and foremost I always enjoy hearing your take and assessment.

My issue with Switzer is that he is beyond a JAG and OBVIOUS as balls. You can't move him anywhere and create opportunities as he is "simple" from a scheme standpoint.

Be aware that I don't love Rogers either and I dont think there is any guarantee you need or see either of them in black and gold in 19 week 1 at NE.

I would like to see Samuels used in the proverbial "switzer" package going forward now that you went got the true compliment to Conner in Snell.


I think you are better served in this design - the mindset is gonna be majorly changed from Mr Fichtner with Snell in the fold and you will see the double TE action percentage highly elevated.


Also now that you no longer that Swing tackle option available with the departure of Gilbert you are gonna need to keep the hog mollies fresh and hungry with the ground game being paramount. Double down on that mindset with the notion that your weakness has been the middle and deep 1/3 on D - this requires you keep yourself more adaptable with back 7 pieces on game day.


There is no debate that 3 TE will be active when they travel to NE. Its a numbers game. Further to that point you ain't cutting Dupree and his 9 million and I think they expect DEEBO JR to be a weapon on that wave front.


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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 6:37 am 
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I can see Switz turning into a major weapon for this offense. You could see a little of their plans for him last year before that ankle that was surgically repaired began to limit him.

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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 6:37 am 
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Count me on the Rogers sucks crew, Switzer can hang around for another year.
The Sutton to slot or FS I don’t get, to me his Jag, does nothing well, and I think he’d be a disaster in the slot.


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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 10:40 am 
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All this fear about Steelers playing on the West Coast... they have two West Coast games plus Arizona. At least one of those games (LAC) they'll have homefield advantage.

San Francisco is going to have a pretty good team this year... their roster is kind of loaded. I won't be shocked if the Steelers lose there. But I think the other two are wins.

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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 11:20 am 
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I have a prediction based on watching smith and bush highlights.

The steelers will be a better tackling team in 2019. Bush is a thumper that likes to hit, as does smith. Both are sticky tacklers with good form, imo. Missed tackles plagued the steelers last year regardless of blown assignments or sealing the edge.

I see sutton smith being used a lot on ST and even situationally on D. I think he's going to surprise people. And count me in the group that is not that impressed with rogers. Not that I'm in love with switzer, but he had immediate impact, and scunge detailed more reasons to keep him over rogers.

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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 11:22 am 
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Scunge wrote:
I had made a comment in another thread about special teams and how we really need to get rid of the Eli Rogers, Tyler Matakevichs, and Jordan Dangerfields.

Eli Rogers?? I have never understood the love for him. I think he is a bum. To me that first season of his is a fluke and not indicative of who he is as a player. The past two seasons show what he is as a player, underwhelming.

In 2017 he was targeted 36 times and had 18 catches. That 50% catch rate is more than pathetic for a slot WR.

Yeah, he improved that some this past season he was targeted 14 times and caught 12 passes, for an 85% catch rate. Yeehawww!!!!

Oh, wait, he averaged 6.6 yards per catch?? That can't be right can it?? I mean come on, Rosie Nix our fullback averaged 9.5 yards per catch, Conner averaged 9.0 yards.

6.6 yards per catch is not going to get it done if you are a WR. Rogers failed to have a single catch go over 20+ yards the past two years. His longest was just 18 yards. All of this despite knowing the offense, despite have a special relationship/rapport with Big Ben!!!! Right.

The sooner he is cut the better. He offers nothing as a punt returner, he has no balls. Say what you want about Switzer but he did not decline to field punts and watch them roll along into our 10, our 5 yard line like Rogers did so often.

Switz has 35 kick returns over 20+ yards, and 1 over 40+ yards (61 yards), Rogers has no kick returns.
Switz has 5 punt returns over 20+ yards, and 1 over 40+ yards (83 yard TD), Rogers has a mere 2 punt returns over 20+ yards.

Rogers has nothing on Switz as a WR and nothing on him as a return man. Having more than one return man is a great thing to have, having Johnson and Switz share/split those duties is good for the team depth wise.

With Barron, Bush and Williams you are 3 deep at ILB, Tyler Matakevich is never going to see the field defensively. If you keep 5 ILBs, then those last two should be young, fast athletic special teams monsters. Dirty Red runs a 4.8 is it? He sure looks and plays slower than that. We need the speed and agility that Sutton Smith and Ulysees Gilbert can provide.

Jordan Dangerfield?? Again, slow, slow, slow and stupid too. He along with Bey would get timely penalties to eliminate a decent/great return.

There are numerous questions I have on defense.

Is it a foregone conclusion that Vince Williams is going to remain a starter?? Would a tandem of Barron and Bush be the two best ILBs that we can put on the field?? How often did we see teams check out of runs on early downs to isolate and exploit Vince Williams in coverage? Do the Steelers go with Barron and Bush as the starters and Williams only comes in for relief occasionally to give them a blow on early run downs??

Of all of the players the one that is really intriguing is Sutton Smith. Yes, Bush and Layne, I get that but imagine a player like Sutton Smith who could stealthily come on in package defenses and really thrive. The Steelers love to blitz their ILBs, to generate pass rush from them, and here is a guy who is just sudden and quick and relentless. Him going against NFL tackles yeah, he might struggle, but to be an interior blitzer where a TE or RB or FB has to deal with him?? He could very well end up with 6-7 sacks as a rookie. And you look at what he does on special teams, blocked punts in college, this one single player could very well generate 4-5 turnovers on special teams/sub package defense.

If Justin Layne develops rapidly or is ready to play some outside CB in packages, does Steven Nelson supplant Mike Hilton and/or Cam Sutton as a slot CB?? Could they even use Nelson as a 3rd safety? He is very good against the run, very physical, I can see them moving him around in sub packages.

Mike Hilton could very well be on the outside looking in and be playing for some other team in 2020. I can envision Cam Sutton being groomed to backup Sean Davis at FS, I don't see anybody else on the roster currently who can step in and do a respectable job if Davis is injured. Sutton has been praised for his smarts and ability to communicate. The FS position has many, many players starting in the NFL that are Cam Sutton's size and dimensions, so don't discount him for that.


THis -- I also don't get the love for Eli. He wasn't that great in his breakout season, and has been well below the line since. Switz is better. Full Stop. Switz is also younger (implying more upside).

Can anyone articulate a single reason to believe Eli is better than Switz? I think Switz is a JAG; I think Eli is below a JAG.


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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 1:15 pm 
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Here’s the thing...like it or not, Switzer has a role in this offense. Rogers, unless someone goes down or fails, does not.

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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 3:07 pm 
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TB wrote:
but if Boswell kicks last year like he did the year before this team would've won 11+ games and been in a good position to compete for the AFC crown.


Even without Boswell they win 11 games if the refs don't screw the pooch vs SD and vs NO.

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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 3:45 pm 
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Quote:
we would've had 57 seconds left instead of 49 if he'd just...


If he’d just learn to count to 2?

LMAO at minimizing his gross inability to manage the clock.

You happen to miss the Raiders game last season?


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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 3:46 pm 
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TB wrote:
Fans don't want to hear it because Tomlin is a moron and the worst coach in football and OMG I can't believe he challenged that and "unleash hell" and we would've had 57 seconds left instead of 49 if he'd just and why isn't he like Belichick... but if Boswell kicks last year like he did the year before this team would've won 11+ games and been in a good position to compete for the AFC crown.

God awful turnover margin, some bad bounces and breaks with some dog shit calls by the refs, and terrible special teams. People can bitch and extrapolate all they want but that's the truth. What that means for this coming year? Time will tell, but for me it still means that this team can be an elite AFC team.

.


It's weird that people were saying the EXACT SAME THINGS even when Tomlin was considered a "good coach"
So why is it a staple of his teams? When was the last time they had an above average ST's game?

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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 3:49 pm 
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stillthere wrote:
TB wrote:
but if Boswell kicks last year like he did the year before this team would've won 11+ games and been in a good position to compete for the AFC crown.


Even without Boswell they win 11 games if the refs don't screw the pooch vs SD and vs NO.


Refs screw the pooch weekly. Sometimes worse than others. Always assume they will fuck you and plan your game accordingly.

We often work ourselves into situations where that one bad call is more significant than it otherwise should have been.

Case in point, moving the ball easily against NE and have the lead. We take foot off gas, they work their way back into the game at which point a bad call dooms our chances that day.

Had we not spent much of the second half fiddle farting around that play might not have even been a factor.


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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 4:02 pm 
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What the hell is wrong with you guys...holding Tomlin responsible for Tomlin’s team.

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 Post subject: Re: Steelers 2018 vs 2019
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 6:16 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
I was reading some statistic/analysis of the Steelers 2018 season. They were actually the league's best in several categories, most interestingly: most yards for and least yards against vs what their opponents gained or gave up. A chart of everyone in the NFL looks like this:

https://twitter.com/NFLsharpTampa/status/1123026187515830272

Steelers are in the green (top of the NFL in points differential, also.

They were near the top in Sacks/pressures, TDs per drive, RZ percentage, and even turnover differential vs what their opponents usually gave up/took away.

Basically, they were near the bottom in only four categories:

• FG kicking expected points
• turnovers created
• Middle of the field pass coverage
• overall Special Teams

If the loss of AB can be managed with spreading the ball around, and IF Bush plays to his draft status, and IF our STs are simply average... there's a good chance the Steelers improve their record, just based on reversion on some of those close plays, ball bounces, etc.

If I knew that the Steelers were going to be okay vs the run and that Bush and whoever is the extra safety are going to make a difference in the deep middle pass coverage (they might, simply by the FS having less to worry about in front of him), then I'd even go as far as 11-5 or 12-4.

I think reports of the Steelers demise are premature. Going to be an interesting offseason, preseason, and season.


Just an observation - the Browns are garbage across the board on these charts, and are more or less on par with the Giants and Bucs.

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