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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:50 pm 
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I think it would be pretty stupid to bluff that you'll tag him again next year.....mofo might insta-sign that $20M+ offer.

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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:14 pm 
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If he waits to sign to week 10 we could not trade him because the deadline would pass. I really hope the steelers pull the offer when he comes into to sign.


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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:44 pm 
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steelmann58 wrote:
If he waits to sign to week 10 we could not trade him because the deadline would pass. I really hope the steelers pull the offer when he comes into to sign.


It doesn't work that way. If he signs, then he's guaranteed $855k for however many games are left. He's not going to "come in to sign". It's more like a game of chicken. Otherwise it comes down to which fax reaches the league office first.

But you raise an interesting question. Assuming Conner is a competent replacement, what do you do? Bell leaving as a FA is a guaranteed R3 comp in 2020. On the other hand, even if he reports Wk10, cutting him saves you almost $6M in cap.

If Conner is a competent replacement, then I'm working out deals to trade Bell when he signs. Then when the trade deadline comes and he hasn't signed, I might cut him. I don't place a ton of value on the comp pick.....you're a player or two away and that $6M is significant.

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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:34 am 
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Kodiak wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
I'm seriously wondering if Bell had planned to report on Labor Day, but failed a (private) drug test and needs a few weeks to detox. That would conveniently explain a lot.


My understanding is the window for pot testing is 30 days in April/May. Bell, unsigned or not, is still an active player participating in FA and as such would have been subject to testing.

I think otherwise every active player is subject to one random test during the season. But it's not like signing his tender suddenly triggers a drug test.

I believe Bell is in the program so it may be a little different. But I'm pretty sure not signing his tender doesn't keep him from being tested. The league knows he was going to be tagged and knows he's an active player, so I'm sure they did not remove him from the testing rollcount.

Silverback triggered drug testing when he didn't put his turn signal on at least 100 feet from an intersection.

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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:59 am 
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Kodiak wrote:
I think it would be pretty stupid to bluff that you'll tag him again next year.....mofo might insta-sign that $20M+ offer.


It won't be $20mil+ if he doesn't play this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:52 am 
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don't be so sure. Some team with throw massive money at him. The Skins have Peterson on lease for a year, and an unproven rookie will be coming off an ACL. I could see them throwing big bucks at Bell. Maybe not them. But someone will do it. No doubt about it.

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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:09 am 
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Here is my understanding of what Bell is going to do.

If he does not report this year for the last 6 games then the Steelers can slap the same $14.544 million franchise tag on him next year in 2019.

But, if Bell signs his franchise tender and plays out those 6 games then that will officially be his '2nd' franchise tag, it will count as his '2nd' franchise tag.

So, the deal is that when a player is franchised 3 years in a row, it isn't a matter of the top 5 highest paid RBs, or 144% of last year's franchise number, no, from what I understand it is the top 5 highest paid POSITION, which would be QB.

So, look at all of the QBs that have just signed contracts, take the average of them and you get something like $27 million?

There is no way that Bell is NOT going to show up and make this season count, and specifically make that 2nd franchise tender count.

By doing that he forces the Steelers hands, are they really going to put another franchise tag on him that is so much money? $27 million? That is nearly twice of what they had to set aside for Bell this season. I just don't see it happening.

This will be Bell's last season, whether he plays in 6 games, 8 games, whatever, and they will not franchise him again and pay that super high franchise tag, it is not going to happen.

And as I keep telling people, the free agents that we pursue next offseason might very well cancel out Bell's new contract or at the very least knock it down from that 3rd round pick to say a 5th or 6th.

How do I figure that? Well let us do the math shall we?

Right now we are what, $6 million under the cap? Add another $8.5 million saved from not paying Bell for 10 games. So, we are now $14.5 million under the cap.

That rolls over into next season. Humor me and say the cap goes up by $4 million, so we are now at $18.5 million. Ben gets out of his funk and plays better this season, the offense takes off and the Steeler give him an extension in the offseason. I could see them freeing up as much as $8 million from Ben for 2019.

$14.5 + 4 + 8 = $26.5 million under the cap.

Say, for the sake of argument that Bud Dupree does not set the world on fire this season. Say he ends up with 7 sacks but Oly Adeniyi looks very good and has 6 sacks in limited playing time. That $9.232 million 5th year option is only guaranteed for injury and if the Steelers decide to move on from Dupree they can cut him and save themselves from paying that 5th year option.

$26.5 + 9.232 = $35.73 million under the cap.

You look at a lot of vets, and backups that are making decent amount of money that might not be back next season.

Ramon Foster has a base of $2.675 million
Tyson Alualu has a base of $3 million
Jordan Berry has a base of $1.907 million
Anthony Chickillo has a base of $1.907 million
Jesse James has a base of $1.907 million
Coty Sensabaugh has a base of $1.4 million
Darius Hayward-Bey has a base of $1.2 million

That is 7 players that make up $14 million in salary. Of those 7 players maybe they bring back Jesse James? Or Ramon Foster, if he takes a discount?

The Steelers could very well have $45 million under the cap and that is without doing any restructuring of their core players. How much more money could they free up?

Yes, I can hear you all whispering now, but the Steelers NEVER play in free agency. But when have they ever had that much money to play with, to actually compete for once, for the top players?

Want an ILB better than Bostic? Maybe they have the money to pursue somebody. Want a better TE than McDonald or James? Maybe they make a play for that athletic TE in free agency.

Maybe they go for some OLB??

I could care less about getting a 3rd round compensation pick for Bell because the Steelers may very well be a busy team in free agency and their signings may negate Bell.

Anyway, those are my musings on Bell and his situation and what I think could happen next offseason.

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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:07 pm 
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But scunge bell could simply sit out again next year.

Yes it hits his wallet but it locks up that money Steelers could use for a top fa player.


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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:30 pm 
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it's still yggy wrote:
But scunge bell could simply sit out again next year.

Yes it hits his wallet but it locks up that money Steelers could use for a top fa player.


Steelers have complete control over that.

They can simply not franchise him again...whether it’s the third time (agree they won’t do that) or a repeat of the second time (I’m thinking they won’t do that either).

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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:37 pm 
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Let's assume Bell shows up Wk10....and let's say trading him is a real possibility.

If you're in the playoff hunt, maybe you roll with Conner but keep Bell for depth? I think this is what they would have to do, but if I'm out of the playoff hunt I get what I can but otherwise I'm cutting him outright to save the money.

Otherwise, PIT is looking at $6M in cap to keep Bell for possibly a 2020 R3 comp. But as Scunge points out, they have some money they may grab a top FA which negate that comp.

On another team, though, they might be getting a 2020 R3 comp. And if it's an NFC playoff contender with a need at RB? I think you could get their late R3 this year, certainly an R4?

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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:06 pm 
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I'd like to prevent a repeat of Harrison last season. Cut him with 4-6 games left (or even 1 or 2), and he will most certainly go to a contender with cash, yes?

Play him as a starter for 6 games and you throw a colossal fuck you to the rest of the team, O line, RB's, etc. What are you going to do, bench Conner after 10 games? If he sucks, then fine. But if conner is successful? Is $5.1 M acceptable for 6 games? Is it acceptable for a back up and depth?

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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:19 pm 
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Jeemie wrote:
it's still yggy wrote:
But scunge bell could simply sit out again next year.

Yes it hits his wallet but it locks up that money Steelers could use for a top fa player.


Steelers have complete control over that.

They can simply not franchise him again...whether it’s the third time (agree they won’t do that) or a repeat of the second time (I’m thinking they won’t do that either).


I think you’re right that by not signing he does leave open of another tagged season.

That’s the only good reason I’ve heard for why he might play this season.

It still comes down to a stalemate of sorts. Bell can always hold out longer than the Steelers can commit to him. It’s just the way it is. Steelers have to move on.


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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:23 pm 
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COR-TEN wrote:
Is it acceptable for a back up and depth?


Another question that could be answered if we see Ridley get carries. But Tomlin....

And don't forget Samuels. If I like 2-3 guys already on the roster, I cut Bell faster than you can slap 'dat ass. $6M is significant, and I think worth more than an R3 comp that might not be on the table, anyway. If he's cut, Bell becomes a free agent and he's not going to be some short-term rental for a contender.

Not sure at what point you'd be able to make such a determination.

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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:33 pm 
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Kodiak wrote:
COR-TEN wrote:
Is it acceptable for a back up and depth?


Another question that could be answered if we see Ridley get carries. But Tomlin....

And don't forget Samuels. If I like 2-3 guys already on the roster, I cut Bell faster than you can slap 'dat ass. $6M is significant, and I think worth more than an R3 comp that might not be on the table, anyway. If he's cut, Bell becomes a free agent and he's not going to be some short-term rental for a contender.

Not sure at what point you'd be able to make such a determination.


So we cut him then he goes to the Patriots or some other team just to stick it to us?

I mean, I know what you're saying, that you don't think he'd do that because he's trying to get as much money as possible, so being a rental seems out of the question....but I'm not willing to risk being wrong on that, either. It seems destined to be the type of move that come back to haunt us.

If I can trade him to a non-contender and get some moderate value back, I'm all for it. Otherwise, we keep his rights in whatever capacity he chooses to cooperate with. Which is going to be tricky in its own right. If he does choose to show up and we don't play him, is he going to be a pain in the ass? I dunno. If you're going to make the assumption above that he's 100% motivated by money and take him at his own word, then why wouldn't he be happy getting paid to ride the bench (and not risking injury or wear and tear)? But on the flip side of that, I don't know many elite level professional athletes who have been happy to sit on the bench.

Ideally, if he came back, we'd use him and Connor in various packages equally, limiting wear and tear on both, keeping both at least moderately happy, and giving our offense an extra dynamic, but we all know Tomlin isn't going to let that happen because we do what we do.


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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:40 pm 
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Louis Lipps Service wrote:
I mean, I know what you're saying, that you don't think he'd do that because he's trying to get as much money as possible, so being a rental seems out of the question....but I'm not willing to risk being wrong on that, either.


He could actually be an idiot, but whoring himself out as a rental makes absolutely no sense. If he had any intention of playing on a 1-yr or part-year deal, then why wouldn't he sign a $14.5M tag? He's not risking injury or poor performance just to stick it to the Steelers....I'm not sure anyone could be THAT stupid.

But there could be a contender out there willing and able to sign him to the long-term deal he wants. I'm not going to live in my fears - odds say a contender signing Bell won't impact PIT. Why eat $6M in cap, not to mention the potential locker room issues, out of fear?

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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:12 pm 
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Kodiak wrote:
Louis Lipps Service wrote:
I mean, I know what you're saying, that you don't think he'd do that because he's trying to get as much money as possible, so being a rental seems out of the question....but I'm not willing to risk being wrong on that, either.


He could actually be an idiot, but whoring himself out as a rental makes absolutely no sense. If he had any intention of playing on a 1-yr or part-year deal, then why wouldn't he sign a $14.5M tag? He's not risking injury or poor performance just to stick it to the Steelers....I'm not sure anyone could be THAT stupid.

But there could be a contender out there willing and able to sign him to the long-term deal he wants. I'm not going to live in my fears - odds say a contender signing Bell won't impact PIT. Why eat $6M in cap, not to mention the potential locker room issues, out of fear?


Because we're not going to do anything with that cap money this year anyways, so it doesn't make any sense to free it up in the first place. Especially since we'll have more than enough cap relief from him sitting out the first half of the season.

Again, if all he cares about preserving himself for his next contract, then he shouldn't mind sitting the bench or being in a limited role any more than he'd refuse to be a rental for a contender.

And again, I'd much rather trade him for something...anything...and control where he'd go. I know it's not going to be much in return and you're not guaranteed a trade partner, but I'd certainly give it a try long before I'd ever consider cutting him.

Cutting him would be my absolute last resort. Try the other options first. If you can't trade him, and there's absolutely no way to get around him being a pain in the ass in the locker room, then maybe, MAYBE, I consider it. But only after exhausting all other options, first.


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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:31 pm 
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Louis Lipps Service wrote:
Cutting him would be my absolute last resort. Try the other options first.


He can't be traded until he signs. So I suppose the answer to the question is the tag is pulled 1 second after the trade deadline passes.

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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:59 pm 
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I'm hoping otherwise, but I wonder if Conner isn't a pretty good bet for injury, with his history, his relatively top-heavy physique, and the workload.

I like Samuels and Ridley and Toussaint better than most, but I think you'd welcome Bell back with open arms if Conner goes down.

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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:40 am 
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Kodiak wrote:
He could actually be an idiot, but whoring himself out as a rental makes absolutely no sense. If he had any intention of playing on a 1-yr or part-year deal, then why wouldn't he sign a $14.5M tag? He's not risking injury or poor performance just to stick it to the Steelers....I'm not sure anyone could be THAT stupid.

But there could be a contender out there willing and able to sign him to the long-term deal he wants. I'm not going to live in my fears - odds say a contender signing Bell won't impact PIT. Why eat $6M in cap, not to mention the potential locker room issues, out of fear?

First, when has ANYTHING he says or does make sense?

Second, what odds are those? Does Vegas actually have a line regarding impact to the Steelers as a result of some ambiguous trade we know nothing of at this point? Since we're actually just spouting guesses masked as opinions, at best, I'll disagree and say that a contender signing Bell will actually HAVE an impact on Pittsburgh.

Any contender will be as such because of their record near the end of the season. And therefore, the teams that they play, Pittsburgh or not, will most likely have playoff implications. Since we figure to be a part of the post season, that will, in fact, impact us regardless of whether we play the Bell-contender or not.

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 Post subject: Re: Lev Taken Off Depth Chart
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:42 am 
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I do think Kodiak has a point about a contender maybe trading for Bell. No, they would not be able to give him a long term deal until after the season but if they think they are close to winning a Super Bowl and feel they are just one player away from making that happen in 2018? Sure I can see somebody maybe offering a 3rd round pick.

If they take on Bell and he does not work out a long term deal and they do not franchise him for 2019, they can let him walk and then in turn may be able to get a 3rd round compensation pick in 2020. So, a team may feel like in the worst case scenario, not being able to sign Bell long term is not that bad if they are able to recoup that 3rd round pick in one year's time.

I can see somebody doing that, but if I were the Steelers I would try and trade him to an NFC team, that way it makes it harder for Bell to impact us unless we make the Super Bowl and his NFL team makes the Super Bowl.

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