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 Post subject: Re: Don’t Pay Bell Argument
PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:02 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
LakecrestSteeler wrote:
Some competent OL and Mike Munchak did get the sacks down and kept Ben upright. But empty backfield sets is a simple probability and math problem that just helps the opposing DC.

...and a lot of bubble screens...

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 Post subject: Re: Don’t Pay Bell Argument
PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 3:21 pm 
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LakecrestSteeler wrote:
But empty backfield sets is a simple probability and math problem that just helps the opposing DC.

Also, running empty *should* help an OL and *should* help a QB get matchups in space to exploit. Early in Ben's career, he had issues taking the checkdown and then his OL developed into incompetent goo. However, once they bolstered the OL talent, the numbers are pretty good. A few of the 3rd/4th and short pass plays were not empty but overall in 2017 3rd/4th & 1-2 yds:

2017 3rd or 4th and 1-2 yards 18/24 133 75% 5 TD/ 0 INT 127.3 rating

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 Post subject: Re: Don’t Pay Bell Argument
PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:03 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
LakecrestSteeler wrote:
But empty backfield sets is a simple probability and math problem that just helps the opposing DC.

Also, running empty *should* help an OL and *should* help a QB get matchups in space to exploit. Early in Ben's career, he had issues taking the checkdown and then his OL developed into incompetent goo. However, once they bolstered the OL talent, the numbers are pretty good. A few of the 3rd/4th and short pass plays were not empty but overall in 2017 3rd/4th & 1-2 yds:

2017 3rd or 4th and 1-2 yards 18/24 133 75% 5 TD/ 0 INT 127.3 rating


Not sure I understand B2B. Are you saying spreading the RB out or going with extra receiver makes it easier to get 1-1 matchups? Or that it makes it easier to get them isolated through the wash?

Not sure if you are arguing one way or the other, but I would think achieving what you describe and an empty backfield should not be mutually exclusive.


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 Post subject: Re: Don’t Pay Bell Argument
PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:46 am 
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The thing most people miss about empty on short yardage is that the RB is in the game, meaning the defense has to put heavier personnel in the game... they can't be sure you're not going to run it. So, in effect, it's similar to the benefit of PA pass but adds the element of making the presnap read much easier for the QB. It usually ends up being an easier throw and it's less time with the ball in the QB's hands.

Steelers had trouble with when they first started using it because:

A. the QB was still learning how to read the D and get rid of the football
B. the OL was so bad, they couldn't hold off the pass rush blocking 1 v 1

With empty, you get the 5 eligibles all 1-3 yards from getting the 1st down, the defense is forced to 'declare' who's covering (even if it's not pure man coverage, someone has to dissuade/cover an immediate throw). AND, if you have a really great pass-blocking OL, you might be able to get the ball beyond the LOS coverage and get a dude in space for a big gain.

I SO prefer empty set on short yardage vs heavy set run formation, whether the play call is run or PA. And that's even taking into account that Lev Bell was #1 in the NFL in at least 2016 and I think 2015 in short-yardage conversions.

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