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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:10 pm 
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COR-TEN wrote:
I understand you want tall with a mix of speed and quickness, but would you be ok if you had four AB's as WR? You have to admit that'd be a handful to defend.
That would be Mouse Davis' ultimate wet dream.


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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:42 pm 
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Scunge wrote:
if you take any decent WR and throw an excessive amount of passes to him, in his direction, couldn't they do much the same?


You and I watched a very different 12/25 Ravens game, and definitely Jacksonville playoff game, Scunge, and those are just two recent examples. Eli Rogers makes those plays? Jerricho Cotchery?Sometimes, you can look at statistics so hard that it lowers your football IQ. You're an excellent poaster, and better than this statement.


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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:58 pm 
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Lord I love the beginning of a new season
The thoughts of free agents and certain draft picks and trades
New coaches and the clues and signs that this is the year Tomlin steelers Do it different
The young guys on D step up
Until it becomes apparent that we do wha we do
And great plays by Ben and AB are our only hope Obi Wan


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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:52 am 
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I can understand the $$ issue with Bell. Gurley and Elliot are both looking to Bell to set a new bar. But Bell is so beyond them it is not a good comparison.

Rec 85 60
Yards 655 1047
TD 2 1


First one is Bell and the 2nd is Sammy Walkin's BEST year. Not last year but 2015. Walkins just got a 3 year 48M contract with 21M guaranteed ( 16M/year). That is just receiving because Walkins has 9 yards rushing in his career.

So Bell's argument is a good one but I think the Steelers got pressure from other NFL teams about setting the bar too high for RBs.

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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 11:43 am 
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Why should players be slotted for pay by their position to begin with?

In the NBA you don't see centers making such and such, and PGs making such and such. You're just paid what your value as a player is; it doesn't matter what your position is. Especially as the NFL becomes more versatile/positionless, which is a big part of Bell's argument.

There will 100% be a lockout/strike in 2021. The NFL really needs fully guaranteed contracts, but the NFLPA is run by beta morons.

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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 11:45 am 
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Gonzo wrote:
Lord I love the beginning of a new season
The thoughts of free agents and certain draft picks and trades
New coaches and the clues and signs that this is the year Tomlin steelers Do it different
The young guys on D step up
Until it becomes apparent that we do wha we do
And great plays by Ben and AB are our only hope Obi Wan

I'm 2/3 way through re-watching the 2008 season, at the moment. A couple of things stand out.

The 2018 offensive line is so much better it can't even be compared. The wideouts of 2018 are better, too... although Holmes, Ward, and especially Nate Washington are all great in their own way. But the big difference is that Ben is so much better now.

The shocking thing is, the 2008 defense isn't so much better on each and every down... but they're incredible at making the play when you need a play made.

Anyway, point of my rant is that: That team was tight, it made plays when it needed to, and the HC was extremely involved. More than I'd remembered. And that team's style of play adapted to its strengths, especially as the year went on.

I wouldn't rule out a team that's good enough to win it this year, with an iron sharpens iron schedule like 2008 was. I wouldn't rule out the HC adapting to some things this year, in a bold way. I'm optimistic.

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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:04 pm 
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TB wrote:
Why should players be slotted for pay by their position to begin with?


The NBA is not a good comparison. Skill position guys, and especially QB's, make a lot more than other positions. Throwing everyone into one pot for purposes of franchise tag calcs just doesn't make sense.

And the NBA has a max salary, with a kicker the current team can add on. With both the NBA and MLB having much "softer" caps than the NFL, although that may be debatable given how NFL teams can manipulate the cap with pro-rating signing bonuses.


I still don't understand why the NFLPA doesn't push for much higher vet minimums. Probably because they worry that will just push out vets in favor of cheaper C1 guys. But then the solution is just to also increase the rookie minimums. Fighting for more revenue share that mostly goes to the top 10% of players is pretty much the opposite of how most unions operate.

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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 7:40 pm 
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Ice wrote:
Scunge wrote:
if you take any decent WR and throw an excessive amount of passes to him, in his direction, couldn't they do much the same?


You and I watched a very different 12/25 Ravens game, and definitely Jacksonville playoff game, Scunge, and those are just two recent examples. Eli Rogers makes those plays? Jerricho Cotchery?Sometimes, you can look at statistics so hard that it lowers your football IQ. You're an excellent poaster, and better than this statement.


I will give you an example of what I am talking about. DeAndre Hopkins, I love him as a player and as a WR but is he really a top 5 WR? Is he really head and shoulders over the WRs that are ranked say, 5-20?

Hopkins had 96 catches last season but he was targeted 174 times!!! That is a catch rate percentage of 55, that is actually pretty bad for a supposedly top 5 WR. Yes, I understand that his QB went down, and that historically he has played with pretty bad QBs, but those 174 targets are to the point of excess. You look at Browns 62% catch rate, Juilo Jones 59% catch rate, Hopkins 55% catch rate, those teams are having to throw excessive amount of targets to those WRs for them to put up their monster stats, catches, yards, etc.

By 'decent WR', I mean somebody who is ranked in the top 20-30, maybe top 40, if they were given the same amount of targets as a Julio Jones, as a Deandre Hopkins as an Antonio Brown, then yeah, I think they too can have 100 catches, have over 1,300-1,500 yards, etc.

Look at Minnesota's Adam Theilen. In 2016 he was targeted a 'mere' 92 times, and he responded with 69 catches for 967 yards. In 2017 they targeted him 142 times and he had 91 catches for 1,276 yards. So, now in 2018 with Kirk Cousins as his QB? What if they targeted him 174 times like Hopkins got this past year? Do you see my point? Who was Adam Theilen before 2016? Was he even ranked in the top 50 in terms of WRs? Probably not, but opportunities and targets can't be discounted. I think the talent level and skill level among WRs are very close and that the difference between the Super Star WRs and the 'decent WRs' is really nonexistent at a times. Situation and opportunity is king.

Yeah, Brown is a great WR, a HOFer most likely if he continues on his path, but man, you have to be cognizant of the fact that he landed in the perfect situation. To have Ben as his QB, to be featured and targeted in the passing game so much, does not get much better than that. But say the Madden curse is real and Brown goes down in the first game and is out for the year, JuJu comes in and is targeted 150 times this year in Brown's spot, he isn't going to end up with over 100 catches, 1,400 yards?? Really?? JuJu was targeted 79 times last season and responded with 58 catches and 917 yards. So, if he were targeted 163 times like Brown last season, was given 84 more targets than his rookie season he couldn't have over 100 catches? Couldn't have over 1,400 yards??

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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:10 pm 
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Ward was 74.1% one year!!!! (actually had 4 years at 69% and above). He was over 12 YPC most of those years.

Not sure about JuJu, not in just his second year stepping into that spot. Definitely not getting the targets, and not sure how well he'd excel against #1 coverage. Still a lot to learn.

And while we all agree some throws are forced to AB, I think the fact remains for him and the other receivers mentioned that they get a lot of targets because they're open more. Ward did most of his damage against zone coverage. I don't know if those other receivers should have higher catch% or not. It's possible to BOTH be open more, and thrown more balls when not open.

I think I counted 8 1000-yd receivers around 70% or higher. Two of those are TE's (Kelce and Gronkowski).


Ben's best completion percentages were 67% and 68% in 2014/15. I'd think 70% would be an excellent number for each receiver to shoot for, because that means Ben is feeding the open guys. AB at only 62% probably doesn't reflect Ben's best decision making.

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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:00 pm 
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Quote:
@RapSheet
The #Giants have agreed to terms with first-round RB Saquon Barkley on his four-year, fully guaranteed contract worth $31.2M, source says. He has a $20.76M signing bonus with $15M paid out immediately — the most in several years. He gets the rest by October. Rookies report today. https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1021107546248163328
How much was Bell guaranteed again?


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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 6:18 pm 
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Scunge, I wouldn't trade AB for any of the WR mentioned. Again, number of targets certainly counts for something, but there's more than one way to interpret that number. Could it be that AB is just really good at getting open? Could it be that his QB has the confidence that if he gets the ball to him, he's going to, more often than not, make a good to spectacular play on it?

And again, rewatch the Jacksonville game and tell me Adam Thielen makes any of those plays. AB gets targeted because he's great, he's not great because he gets targeted.


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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 6:26 pm 
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Quote:
AB gets targeted because he's great, he's not great because he gets targeted.

The Ice is right


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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:11 pm 
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I think it is a little of both.

For me, if I was the GM I would not overpay for WRs or RBs, because I see those positions as easily found in the draft. To me I would only pay for positions that are hard to find, hard to acquire, for those rare players. If you find one of those, you overpay, you give the big contract to in a heartbeat.

A shutdown CB who can cover is rare.

A pass rusher at OLB, that double digit sack artist is rare.

Tackles that can pass protect against those pass rushers are hard to come by.

Yes, you need a franchise QB, you spend the big money on them of course.

But WR and RBs? I think you can replace them easily. As I said, I honestly believe that if Brown were out for the year that JuJu could be the #1 and be targeted 150-175 times and end up with over 100 catches, 1,400+ yards and 10+ TDs. Just as I think Bell can be replaced next season with a 1st or 2nd round rookie RB. If a 33/34 year old DeAngelo Williams can play just as well as Bell when he had to fill in then there is more to Bell's production than just 'his generational talent'. Amazing all the hyperbole I have heard this offseason about how Bell 'makes' this offense, how the offensive line is not really 'that' good, how Bell can thrive in any offense with any team. Right!!!

Brown and Bell do not have exclusive rights on work ethic, or talent and they both have been very fortunate to have been drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers. I know there is a lot hand wringing by some wondering how this team will do if one or both are gone, me, I don't worry about it. For all the talk about how this may be the last year of the Killer B's, and how the time is now to win a Super Bowl, funny how they still haven't done shit together, haven't accomplished anything.

10 years from now, when the Steelers invite some former players back to help celebrate something for a Monday Night game, how will that night be for Bell and Brown? Say that Bell, Brown, Parker, Ward are all invited. Do Bell and Brown shake hands with Parker and Ward and notice the Super Bowl rings on their fingers and think wow, what could have been? Sometimes being the all-time best at your position doesn't mean a thing, doesn't guarantee a Super Bowl ring.

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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:36 pm 
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I think you have a point on Bell, albeit a pretty obvious one that I don't think I've seen anyone on this site disagree with, but I gotta disagree on AB. He's a special player, and not showing any signs of slowing down. You really just have to roll the tape. It's right there.

As far as lack of Super Bowl ring, are we blaming Brown for that Jags loss? Seems you'd have to get pretty far down the goat list before you got to him.


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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:05 pm 
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I am not placing blame on Brown for the lack of Super Bowl rings but it is amazing to me how he disappears at times.

For example, where was he in the Super Bowl against Green Bay? 1 catch for 1 yard. Don't give me that, well, he was a rookie bullshit.

We don't get to the Championship game against the JETs if Brown did not have his 3 catch 75 yard game against the Baltimore Ravens. Remember that famous helmet catch by Brown for 58 yards on 3rd and 19?

Where was that Antonio Brown in the Super Bowl? He came through against the Ravens, the playoffs were not overwhelming for him, so where did he go?

To me we have a bit of a conundrum/puzzle on offense. The offense feeds Bell and Brown, they put up monster production (although oddly enough not in the most important TDs category), which they in turn parlay into big contracts. So, then you are still left with an offense that is underachieving, not scoring enough points, not getting out to leads, not helping their defense. B and B still want to get their touches, targets and yet we are not any closer to winning a Super Bowl, and the big money you are paying your big guns on offense might be curtailing your ability to bring in high quality free agents for defense.

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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:31 pm 
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Well, he was a rookie, and your point is well taken that we're possibly not even in the game without his Ravens performance. The chemistry we see today had yet to fully develop, though.

If I'm not mistaken, the Jest had a pretty quality secondary that season (some ex Pitt kid named Revis?). Might have been a factor. The other teams play for money, too.


Last edited by Ice on Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:34 pm 
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The Antonio Brown of 2010-2013 is light years from the AB of 2014-2017. He had success vs the Ravens because that was an audacious playcall (4 verts) on 3rd and 19 and a sick throw. In the SB, they sorely missed the route-running of Sanders and GB took away the deep ball. That left guys underneath who really couldn't separate and a whole lot of rookie/2nd year/backups confusion in no-huddle drill. Add in Ben trying to force a big play and a OG/FB whiff on a run play, and the rest is history.

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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 10:58 pm 
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Scunge wrote:
I think it is a little of both.

For me, if I was the GM I would not overpay for WRs or RBs, because I see those positions as easily found in the draft. To me I would only pay for positions that are hard to find, hard to acquire, for those rare players. If you find one of those, you overpay, you give the big contract to in a heartbeat.

A shutdown CB who can cover is rare.

A pass rusher at OLB, that double digit sack artist is rare.

Tackles that can pass protect against those pass rushers are hard to come by.

Yes, you need a franchise QB, you spend the big money on them of course.

But WR and RBs? I think you can replace them easily. As I said, I honestly believe that if Brown were out for the year that JuJu could be the #1 and be targeted 150-175 times and end up with over 100 catches, 1,400+ yards and 10+ TDs. Just as I think Bell can be replaced next season with a 1st or 2nd round rookie RB. If a 33/34 year old DeAngelo Williams can play just as well as Bell when he had to fill in then there is more to Bell's production than just 'his generational talent'. Amazing all the hyperbole I have heard this offseason about how Bell 'makes' this offense, how the offensive line is not really 'that' good, how Bell can thrive in any offense with any team. Right!!!

Brown and Bell do not have exclusive rights on work ethic, or talent and they both have been very fortunate to have been drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers. I know there is a lot hand wringing by some wondering how this team will do if one or both are gone, me, I don't worry about it. For all the talk about how this may be the last year of the Killer B's, and how the time is now to win a Super Bowl, funny how they still haven't done shit together, haven't accomplished anything.

10 years from now, when the Steelers invite some former players back to help celebrate something for a Monday Night game, how will that night be for Bell and Brown? Say that Bell, Brown, Parker, Ward are all invited. Do Bell and Brown shake hands with Parker and Ward and notice the Super Bowl rings on their fingers and think wow, what could have been? Sometimes being the all-time best at your position doesn't mean a thing, doesn't guarantee a Super Bowl ring.


Ozzie Newsome and Bill Belichick are HOF GMs. Neither one of them would agree that finding a WR in the draft is "easy." Finding quality players at any position in the NFL Draft isn't easy. Yeah, we drafted Le'Veon Bell in 2013 (who no one on here before the draft would have taken in the second round), but Chris Rainey, Dri Archer, Baron Batch, Jonathan Dwyer, and Frank Summers all say "Hi." I'd argue even Mendenhall's career was disappointing overall, even though he wasn't a bust.

You put the offense they have now with the defenses they had when they had Parker and Ward and we'd easily be the best team in the league, would be favored in every game we played. It's a team game and there's not just one way or one formula to win. Just because these guys haven't gone all the way doesn't mean that elite talent at the skill positions is meaningless, or that it's somehow holding us back from winning it all if we'd use that money elsewhere. We had a piece of shit o-line in 2008, should we trade DeCastro, Pouncey, and Gilbert for defensive players and go back to Ben running for his life? Hell no.

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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:34 am 
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Whatever system the Steelers use to find the WR (Scouts + coaches) seems to work well. The biggest issue in getting the college WR is that their route trees are so limited and the spread offense looks for matchups. WR in college are rarely challenged to run routes to get open. They get by on their physical abilities alone. If they do not have the attitude to learn and get a lot better they become flashes in the pan.

I keep thinking at some point NFL GMs will have scouts look for route running much higher in the desired abilities but they remain fairly foolish. Everyone keeps looking for the new Moss when they should be spending more time looking for the next Adam Thielen ( just to name one).

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 Post subject: Re: Bell Signing Rumor
PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:02 am 
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Agree, Brick, and I would also add teammates to the scouts and coaches. AB and the YMC (Sanders has turned out a more than decent pro, and Mike Wallace even still has an NFL job) had Ward to look at in terms of effort and professionalism, just like a kid like Juju has Brown to look at, along with James Washington this year. Definitely a contributing factor in my evaluation.

Also, I think the Steelers do a great job of not putting too much on a rookie WR's plate too early. Brown, Sanders, Wallace, Bryant, and to an extent Juju last season, though he progressed faster than some of the others, were only put in position to succeed, given what they came in knowing how to do, with more added to their plates as games went on.


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