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 Post subject: Offseason fodder: Ben on third downs since 2001
PostPosted: Tue May 22, 2018 8:59 am 
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Some fun stats courtesy of the board whipping-site, the Depot.

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2018/05/ro ... ince-2001/

Apparently Ben, if not the best, is among the best QB in football on third down conversions. Averaged from 2001, he apparently is the best.

Historically, a lot *whining* on the board about Ben and third down bombs. "Why can't Ben just keep the chains moving?!" :D A lot of blaming 3rd down bombs on Haley. The latter is BS. Ben is on record loving it. The former is apparently also silly because Ben converts more than most. So he does keep the chains moving on 3rd down. Only Rodgers has more deep throws on third, but just barely, and Ben has the better conversion rate. (But also waaaay more interceptions.)

I always liked bombs away Ben on 3rd down. Hope he keeps it up!

Quote:
According to search results on PFR, Roethlisberger’s third down passing conversion percentage over the course of the last two seasons is 46.9%. Only three other quarterbacks who attempted 200 or more third down pass attempts over the course of the last two seasons posted a higher conversion rate than Roethlisberger and they were Rodgers, Winston and Tom Brady.

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 Post subject: Re: Offseason fodder: Ben on third downs since 2001
PostPosted: Tue May 22, 2018 10:07 am 
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I argued pre Martavis cliff fall that we needed to keep throwing the deep ball for the most part but only needed to tweak it. Sideline go routes to DHB were too low of a percentage.

I am a believer in playing to your strengths but with an eye toward impact.

I'm not advocating throwing the deep ball as much with our current receiver group (yet). I have to see what we have first. JuJu's 2nd season, rookie Washington, and hopefully more McDonald on the field this year.

We should tear up the league in the mid range game though.

I'm not discounting the ability of JuJu and maybe Washington to make plays downfield. Just sayin'

Hopefully we will be better/more consistent in the RZ.


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 Post subject: Re: Offseason fodder: Ben on third downs since 2001
PostPosted: Tue May 22, 2018 10:06 pm 
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Still Lit wrote:
Some fun stats courtesy of the board whipping-site, the Depot.

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2018/05/ro ... ince-2001/

Apparently Ben, if not the best, is among the best QB in football on third down conversions. Averaged from 2001, he apparently is the best.

Historically, a lot *whining* on the board about Ben and third down bombs. "Why can't Ben just keep the chains moving?!" :D A lot of blaming 3rd down bombs on Haley. The latter is BS. Ben is on record loving it. The former is apparently also silly because Ben converts more than most. So he does keep the chains moving on 3rd down. Only Rodgers has more deep throws on third, but just barely, and Ben has the better conversion rate. (But also waaaay more interceptions.)

I always liked bombs away Ben on 3rd down. Hope he keeps it up!

Quote:
According to search results on PFR, Roethlisberger’s third down passing conversion percentage over the course of the last two seasons is 46.9%. Only three other quarterbacks who attempted 200 or more third down pass attempts over the course of the last two seasons posted a higher conversion rate than Roethlisberger and they were Rodgers, Winston and Tom Brady.


What percentage of converted 3rd downs by Ben are "bombs away" or more than, oh I don't know, a 15-yard completion?

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 Post subject: Re: Offseason fodder: Ben on third downs since 2001
PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2018 8:01 am 
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On phone at the mo’ and not able to see whole chart for some reason, but pretty sure chart gives you all you need to know to figure that percentage. Wouldn’t want to deprive you of the pleasure of the mental activity of doing the calculation.

But, suffice it to say, since Ben is near or at the top in conversion and considering that he bombs away more than anyone, can the long throws on 3rd really be doing that much damage?

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 Post subject: Re: Offseason fodder: Ben on third downs since 2001
PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2018 8:42 am 
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Still Lit wrote:
But, suffice it to say, since Ben is near or at the top in conversion and considering that he bombs away more than anyone, can the long throws on 3rd really be doing that much damage?


To me the situation would have to be considered in order to determine the "damage". If they are facing a 3rd and 2 or 3 yards, and they go for the bomb v.s. a 3rd and 10 or 13 yards. Consider the odds of a quick hitter or a run off guard in the first scenario and I have to believe that the odds of picking up those 2 or 3 yards that way are a more likely than a deep and slow developing pass play down the field. However, on a 3rd and forever I'm inclined to think yeah go for it, what do we have to loose. Even the interceptions on a long attempt at that point don't bother me too much because to me they are almost like a short punt (unless it is returned by the opponent for chunk yardage...)


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 Post subject: Re: Offseason fodder: Ben on third downs since 2001
PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2018 9:18 am 
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Almighty Slacker wrote:
... If they are facing a 3rd and 2 or 3 yards, and they go for the bomb v.s. a 3rd and 10 or 13 yards. Consider the odds of a quick hitter or a run off guard in the first scenario and I have to believe that the odds of picking up those 2 or 3 yards...


But that's precisely why they do it on 3rd and 2. Much higher percentage splash play with the D stacked to stop the 3rd and short stuff. On 3rd and 13, you have two safeties back and it becomes almost a give up play, the classic "pick is as good as a punt".

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 Post subject: Re: Offseason fodder: Ben on third downs since 2001
PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2018 9:19 am 
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Kodiak wrote:
Almighty Slacker wrote:
... If they are facing a 3rd and 2 or 3 yards, and they go for the bomb v.s. a 3rd and 10 or 13 yards. Consider the odds of a quick hitter or a run off guard in the first scenario and I have to believe that the odds of picking up those 2 or 3 yards...


But that's precisely why they do it on 3rd and 2. Much higher percentage splash play with the D stacked to stop the 3rd and short stuff. On 3rd and 13, you have two safeties back and it becomes almost a give up play, the classic "pick is as good as a punt".


Yup. 100%. That's why it's successful as often as it is, and as frustrating as it is when it doesn't work, all rolled into one post.


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 Post subject: Re: Offseason fodder: Ben on third downs since 2001
PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2018 9:43 am 
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Kodiak wrote:
Almighty Slacker wrote:
... If they are facing a 3rd and 2 or 3 yards, and they go for the bomb v.s. a 3rd and 10 or 13 yards. Consider the odds of a quick hitter or a run off guard in the first scenario and I have to believe that the odds of picking up those 2 or 3 yards...


But that's precisely why they do it on 3rd and 2. Much higher percentage splash play with the D stacked to stop the 3rd and short stuff. On 3rd and 13, you have two safeties back and it becomes almost a give up play, the classic "pick is as good as a punt".


And there is more to the equation than comparing percentages for 3rd down conversions.

Deep completions are high impact splash plays that change games... and are reflected in QB YPA.


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 Post subject: Re: Offseason fodder: Ben on third downs since 2001
PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2018 9:57 am 
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Ice wrote:
Kodiak wrote:
Almighty Slacker wrote:
... If they are facing a 3rd and 2 or 3 yards, and they go for the bomb v.s. a 3rd and 10 or 13 yards. Consider the odds of a quick hitter or a run off guard in the first scenario and I have to believe that the odds of picking up those 2 or 3 yards...


But that's precisely why they do it on 3rd and 2. Much higher percentage splash play with the D stacked to stop the 3rd and short stuff. On 3rd and 13, you have two safeties back and it becomes almost a give up play, the classic "pick is as good as a punt".


Yup. 100%. That's why it's successful as often as it is, and as frustrating as it is when it doesn't work, all rolled into one post.


I completely agree with that. Overall, I enjoy the fact that we are aggressive and look to push the ball down the field, especially since we have a phenomenal qb to employ this tactic with. However, I was more or less commenting on the whole "percentage of conversions argument". Football, like most things in life, is situational. You cannot just broad brush it and say "well Ben's percentage is this" so we should not be concerned. They have to consider where they are on the field, what the score is, is it 1st quarter or 4th with less than 3 min and only up by 2 points, who's the opponent and what are their tendencies in those situations... it's never as cut and dry as "our 3rd down completion percentage is X%, so heck lets bombs away".

There are times to employ that strategy and be aggressive and there are times to be a little more conservative and try to pick up the 1st down in a more traditional manner.


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 Post subject: Re: Offseason fodder: Ben on third downs since 2001
PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2018 10:16 am 
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Almighty Slacker wrote:
There are times to employ that strategy and be aggressive and there are times to be a little more conservative and try to pick up the 1st down in a more traditional manner.


And I'd argue the choice to go deep in those situations is more nuanced than we realize.

As Ben always says, "if he's even, he's leaving".....true for both Wallace and Bryant. By the time Ben has completed his drop, he knows if Bryant/Wallace - and now Washington - are in a 1-on-1 footrace they're going to win. And Ben throws that ball as well as anyone. Misfired a lot last year because Bryant was so maddeningly inconsistent and lazy.

Presumably, if the throw isn't there Ben has other options. But when they have the 1-on-1 matchup, they like the risk/reward. Generally that has been true. For all the hand-wringing in this scenario, I think the vast majority of those bombs HAVE come against man coverage that favors Bryant or Brown.

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