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 Post subject: Re: Guice case
PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:59 am 
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Gotta admit between the 2 i like Michel a bit more as well


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 Post subject: Re: Guice case
PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:44 am 
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See below. Big red flag on Michel's fumble rate IMO.


Below are the career offensive fumble rates for the top running back prospects in the 2018 NFL Draft class, broken down into five categories:

ELITE (150 or better)

359.0 -- Darrel Williams, LSU

238.7 -- Demario Richard, Arizona State

207.7 -- Ronald Jones, USC

193.3 -- Saquon Barkley, Penn State

191.3 -- Kerryon Johnson, Auburn

181.7 -- Kyle Hicks, TCU

180.6 -- Justin Jackson, Northwestern

174.0 -- Josh Adams, Notre Dame

155.5 -- Jordan Wilkins, Ole Miss

ABOVE AVERAGE (125-149)

142.1 -- Chase Edmonds, Fordham

135.0 -- Lavon Coleman, Washington

124.9 -- Ralph Webb, Vanderbilt

123.3 -- John Kelly, Tennessee

AVERAGE (100-124)

114.0 -- Royce Freeman, Oregon

110.0 -- Phillip Lindsay, Colorado

105.8 -- Rashaad Penny, San Diego State

100.6 -- Derrius Guice, LSU

BELOW AVERAGE (76-99)

98.6 -- Nick Chubb, Georgia

96.0 -- Bo Scarbrough, Alabama

90.0 -- Mark Walton, Miami (Fla.)

88.2 -- Ryan Nall, Oregon State

87.3 -- Ito Smith, Southern Miss

86.8 -- Nyheim Hines, NC State

76.3 -- Jordan Chunn, Troy

RED FLAG (75 or worse)

74.2 -- Roc Thomas, Jacksonville State

67.4 -- Akrum Wadley, Iowa

66.9 -- Jarvion Franklin, Western Michigan

66.5 -- Kalen Ballage, Arizona State

62.5 -- Justin Crawford, West Virginia

58.2 -- Kamryn Pettway, Auburn

55.6 -- Keith Ford, Texas A&M

54.6 -- Sony Michel, Georgia

39.5 -- Jeffery Wilson, North Texas


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 Post subject: Re: Guice case
PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:56 am 
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If I read this chart right. Michel fumbles twice as often as Guice.


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 Post subject: Re: Guice case
PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:17 pm 
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Doesn't include Chris Warren III, but Warren fumbled twice in 227 touches (a botched reverse where he tried to jump pass the ball over two defenders & a last second fumble vs Oklahoma)

He'd be in the above average group.

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 Post subject: Re: Guice case
PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:45 pm 
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That's correct. This chart shows fumbles per offensive touch (which can include a catch of course). Michel's is quite bad. It means if he gets 20+ carries and a few catches a game...he'll be fumbling the ball roughly at an average of once every 2 games. That number of course easily could be worse in the NFL because holes are smaller and defenders are even better at stripping the ball. To put it in perspective, I believe Bell's rate is in the 200s. In short, Michel is fairly loose with the football. I'm not saying that can't be improved, but in a draft with a lot of RB talent, do we really need to spend a 1st on Michel?


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 Post subject: Re: Guice case
PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:16 pm 
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I'm curious. Does anybody know if fumble rates change drastically for players going from college to the NFL or is that something that plagues RB's entering the NFL throughout their careers? IOW, can coaching and practice fix fumble rates?

I'd take either, but there is very little separating them other than fumbling, from what I can tell. College systems notwithstanding. Considering the other holes in starters and depth - both offense and defense - I wouldn't take a RB in the first, especially if the Steeler FO thinks they can strike a deal with the guy with dollar signs for pupils. I know this board hates Conner, but if they can spell Bell, and give Conner and Ridley some touches in 2018, it will prep them for RB by committee. Be it Guice (if they can get him) or someone else. What does the 2019 draft look like for RB's?

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 Post subject: Re: Guice case
PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:23 pm 
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I like Josh Adams in the 5th round.


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 Post subject: Re: Guice case
PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:20 pm 
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COR-TEN wrote:
I'm curious. Does anybody know if fumble rates change drastically for players going from college to the NFL or is that something that plagues RB's entering the NFL throughout their careers? IOW, can coaching and practice fix fumble rates?

I'd take either, but there is very little separating them other than fumbling, from what I can tell. College systems notwithstanding. Considering the other holes in starters and depth - both offense and defense - I wouldn't take a RB in the first, especially if the Steeler FO thinks they can strike a deal with the guy with dollar signs for pupils. I know this board hates Conner, but if they can spell Bell, and give Conner and Ridley some touches in 2018, it will prep them for RB by committee. Be it Guice (if they can get him) or someone else. What does the 2019 draft look like for RB's?

You can’t coach speed. You can’t coach strength. You can’t coach quickness, or desire. You can’t coach smarts. You CAN absolutely coach a player how to hold on to the football.

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 Post subject: Re: Guice case
PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:19 pm 
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I ike Josh Adams late in the Draft if they don't draft a RB early.


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 Post subject: Re: Guice case
PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:24 pm 
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I also will not be suprised if the steelers go another way when the 28th pick comes up


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