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 Post subject: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:10 pm 
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Bell wants to be the highest paid RB in history, and given inflation, the best back at any time deserves such... but Bell wants to be paid like a HoFer/dual threat as though hes a Ladanian Tomlinson or Marshall Faulk... That begs the question, is he really at that level??

I compared him to the top 5 opening 5 year runs for RBs in the last 20 yrs:

touches yards TDs
Tomlinson2044 9753 80
Edgerin 1755 8191 52
Faulk 1686 8124 51
Peterson 1543 8061 67
Bell 1541 7996 42
Forte 1529 7652 35
McCoy 1421 7600 67
Alexander1830 8800 98

He compares favorably in production to everyone except Tomlinson, especially favorable in mileage (touches), but kind of weak in TDs (maybe Haley's fault).

What is interesting here is he is only a few hundred yards ahead of Forte and McCoy... is he truly THAT much better than those guys?

Is he really on Peterson's level when Peterson scored 1.5x as many TDs in his first 5 years?

And how long do you sign him for? You have to think that at most, there is only 3 more years of this kind of production left in him. So 3 years for what? Are we really gonna pay this guy twice what Davontae Freeman makes? Getting cold feet here.

He definitely is no Ladanian Tomlinson (who only played at a high level for 3 more years after he hit Bell's age of 25).

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 Post subject: Re: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:12 am 
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is that rushing or total yards?

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 Post subject: Re: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:19 am 
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Total yards....keep in mind, if Bell isn't hurt/suspended he picks up about another 16+ games.

But his efficiency fell off a cliff last year. Not random luck, either - for everyone who watched him, he's clearly lost a step.

Sure, argue he's worth $10M per year - 25% more than any other back. But huge risk his PRODUCTIVITY falls off a cliff in 2-3 years. I tend to agree the money is better spent elsewhere (in theory).

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 Post subject: Re: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:28 am 
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The fact that he has only finished one season is concerning.


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 Post subject: Re: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:43 am 
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The fact he is slow and his longest run was 27 yards tells me everything I need to know

NOT WORTH THE MONEY

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 Post subject: Re: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:59 am 
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BarryFoster wrote:
The fact he is slow and his longest run was 27 yards tells me everything I need to know

NOT WORTH THE MONEY


Meh... That just makes it easier to calculate his real ypc, not having to take away the long runs.


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 Post subject: Re: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:25 am 
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here's a question ---

How many CHAMPIONSHIPS were won by any of their teams in any of those years for all those players combined?

I would say probably NONE


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 Post subject: Re: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:08 pm 
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steel wrote:
here's a question ---

How many CHAMPIONSHIPS were won by any of their teams in any of those years for all those players combined?

I would say probably NONE

I think that’s kind of the point....

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 Post subject: Re: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:12 pm 
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steel wrote:
here's a question ---

How many CHAMPIONSHIPS were won by any of their teams in any of those years for all those players combined?

I would say probably NONE


One- Faulk one one for the Rams in 1999.

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 Post subject: Re: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:28 pm 
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Bu.. Bu.. But I can run and catch like a wide receiver! I can block very well on 3rd downs. Matter of fact, I ain't ever allowed a sack as a 3rd down blocking RB. Isn't that worth $15Mil per? Com-awn!


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 Post subject: Re: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:16 pm 
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I could live with a 3 year deal around $10-11 million per year for Bell, although I highly doubt Bell would accept such a deal, anything more than that is assinine as far as I am concerned. I think both sides would like to see Bell sign a deal, I just don’t think it will happen because of Bell’s demands. My guess is they end up tagging him and allowing him to negotiate with other teams in some form or fashion.


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 Post subject: Re: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:39 am 
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The Patriots' game is the best single point example of why paying Bell so much money would be foolish.

When the Steelers went super-conservative and put the ball in Bell's hands in the second half of that game, do you think Bill Belichick was scared or happy?

Scunge said it best...Le'veon Bell doesn't have breakaway speed...he can't score from anywhere.

If you're putting the ball overly-much in his hands, opposing teams are HAPPY, not worried.

So why pay him like he's a game-changer?

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 Post subject: Re: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:49 am 
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Jeemie wrote:
The Patriots' game is the best single point example of why paying Bell so much money would be foolish.

When the Steelers went super-conservative and put the ball in Bell's hands in the second half of that game, do you think Bill Belichick was scared or happy?

Scunge said it best...Le'veon Bell doesn't have breakaway speed...he can't score from anywhere.

If you're putting the ball overly-much in his hands, opposing teams are HAPPY, not worried.

So why pay him like he's a game-changer?

good point..and I agree on bell..


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 Post subject: Re: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:32 pm 
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Jeemie wrote:
The Patriots' game is the best single point example of why paying Bell so much money would be foolish.

When the Steelers went super-conservative and put the ball in Bell's hands in the second half of that game, do you think Bill Belichick was scared or happy?

Scunge said it best...Le'veon Bell doesn't have breakaway speed...he can't score from anywhere.

If you're putting the ball overly-much in his hands, opposing teams are HAPPY, not worried.

So why pay him like he's a game-changer?


Belichick was laughing his ass off at our dumb coaches, starting with our HC.

I do wonder if Tomlin had to choose between a rookie Ben and a rookie Bell who he would choose to start a franchise (if he had to choose between them).

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 Post subject: Re: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:46 pm 
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Havoc wrote:
Belichick was laughing his ass off at our dumb coaches, starting with our HC.


BB probably thinks "if I had Ben I wouldn't even have to cheat"

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 Post subject: Re: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:03 pm 
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bam morris wrote:
Jeemie wrote:
The Patriots' game is the best single point example of why paying Bell so much money would be foolish.

When the Steelers went super-conservative and put the ball in Bell's hands in the second half of that game, do you think Bill Belichick was scared or happy?

Scunge said it best...Le'veon Bell doesn't have breakaway speed...he can't score from anywhere.

If you're putting the ball overly-much in his hands, opposing teams are HAPPY, not worried.

So why pay him like he's a game-changer?

good point..and I agree on bell..


Because he can be a game changer.

Jeemie, you did not argue Bell is not worth the money (he may not be). You did not argue he is not a game changer (he may not be). You argued that turtle ball is a stupid strategy against NE and argued that the manner in which Bell was deployed was dumb.

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 Post subject: Re: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:14 pm 
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Still Lit wrote:
bam morris wrote:
Jeemie wrote:
The Patriots' game is the best single point example of why paying Bell so much money would be foolish.

When the Steelers went super-conservative and put the ball in Bell's hands in the second half of that game, do you think Bill Belichick was scared or happy?

Scunge said it best...Le'veon Bell doesn't have breakaway speed...he can't score from anywhere.

If you're putting the ball overly-much in his hands, opposing teams are HAPPY, not worried.

So why pay him like he's a game-changer?

good point..and I agree on bell..


Because he can be a game changer.

Jeemie, you did not argue Bell is not worth the money (he may not be). You did not argue he is not a game changer (he may not be). You argued that turtle ball is a stupid strategy against NE and argued that the manner in which Bell was deployed was dumb.


Now I'm arguing he isn't a game-changer.

Antonio Brown is a game-changer. Ben is a game-changer.

Bell has not shown he's a game-changer in any way, shape or form.

Not anymore.

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 Post subject: Re: Bell's Worth - a historical Perspective
PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:36 pm 
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Bell is a tough matchup, can be lethal at turning a 1 yd gain into 4-5, and is very dependable when healthy. He's also a crutch.

Ideally, you'd keep him at a reasonable number and add a guy with similar skills but more game-changing upside.

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