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 Post subject: Re: AAPL Stock
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2012 12:42 pm 
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Congrats to whoever had a buy limit order at 550! You probably got executed on a computer glitch!

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 Post subject: Re: AAPL Stock
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2012 6:41 pm 
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Deebo wrote:
Congrats to whoever had a buy limit order at 550! You probably got executed on a computer glitch!


:lol: :lol:

Would that actually be honored?

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 Post subject: Re: AAPL Stock
 Post Posted: Sat Mar 24, 2012 3:41 am 
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Steelknife wrote:
I'm no financial analyst...quite amateur actually.

Got lucky and threw some money I had sitting into savings into AAPL last week (better late than never). Not much...just a few shares. They just announced a pretty big dividend and a stock buy back program. Sent the stock up today.

After hours they announced they've sold 3 million ipads in 3 days -- not including pre-orders (supposedly). Should send it even higher tomorrow.

Wouldn't be surprise to see it at $700 by the end of the month, and $1k by year's end.

Might be worth a look!

*not financial advice*

Any one else play the amateur investment game?


Other than land, the only thing I have invested in is gold and silver. I bought 100 ounces of gold in the early 80s for a few hundred dollars an ounce. I sold half of those this year for around $1900 an ounce. I bought more a few years ago but the price was not near what it was in the 80s but has still doubled in the price I bought it for. If any of you have old gold jewelry sitting around I suggest you sell it for the scrap price. It's amazing what they are paying for it today. I also suggest silver an an investment. But if you buy make sure it is .999 because a lot of that crap out there they are selling is not worth what they are asking for and is often just a coin or inget covered in a thin linning of gold or silver.

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 Post subject: Re: AAPL Stock
 Post Posted: Sat Mar 24, 2012 3:49 pm 
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Fan Of STEEL wrote:
Steelknife wrote:
I'm no financial analyst...quite amateur actually.

Got lucky and threw some money I had sitting into savings into AAPL last week (better late than never). Not much...just a few shares. They just announced a pretty big dividend and a stock buy back program. Sent the stock up today.

After hours they announced they've sold 3 million ipads in 3 days -- not including pre-orders (supposedly). Should send it even higher tomorrow.

Wouldn't be surprise to see it at $700 by the end of the month, and $1k by year's end.

Might be worth a look!

*not financial advice*

Any one else play the amateur investment game?


Other than land, the only thing I have invested in is gold and silver. I bought 100 ounces of gold in the early 80s for a few hundred dollars an ounce. I sold half of those this year for around $1900 an ounce. I bought more a few years ago but the price was not near what it was in the 80s but has still doubled in the price I bought it for. If any of you have old gold jewelry sitting around I suggest you sell it for the scrap price. It's amazing what they are paying for it today. I also suggest silver an an investment. But if you buy make sure it is .999 because a lot of that crap out there they are selling is not worth what they are asking for and is often just a coin or inget covered in a thin linning of gold or silver.


Yeah, gold is absurd. Good call in the 80s.

But man, I don't get it. World volatility should send up the stocks of gun and ammo manufacturers more than gold. If all goes to all, would you rather have a pile of gold or a pile of bullets and guns?

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 Post subject: Re: AAPL Stock
 Post Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:13 pm 
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Steelknife wrote:
StillerInCT wrote:
I've seen analysts predict the price to touch $900. I don't know that there is a better positioned company out there. Even without leveraging their capital structure they have an ROE of 42%, so it's basically driven by profit margin and asset turnover, which is what you want to see. In theory, and assuming the dividend and share buyback were one offs, then they can conceivably sustain a growth rate of about 42%. But they'd need to reinvest and stop hoarding the cash.

My concern with Apple is can they maintain their level of innovation? Steve Jobs (RIP) was the ultimate marketer and knew what we wanted before we even knew we wanted it. It's too early to tell with Cook, but if they can't continue to innovate I would guess they'd start growing through horizontal (Not vertical through the supply chain) acquisitions. That is where I would hop off the train because it would signal to me that they're entering the mature stage and their acquiring for growth. I'd prefer to see them continue to grow organically through new products and new markets (obviously).

The ride will end, it always does, but I think Apple has a few more years of accelerated growth if they can continue to figure out what us consumers really want. Eventually they'll have to do more than come out with the incremental changes to the iPhone and iPad and give us something new. Otherwise the product will start to get stale as we get tired of shelling out another $300 for a few upgrades.

So will it hit $900? $1000? It very well could. But the market is irrational, so who really knows?


Jobs left 4 years of new products in the pipeline. If 2015/2016 roll around and Apple suddenly starts faltering, you'll know why.

I'm thinking I'll sell at the end of April sometime after their Q2 earnings. Unfortunately, I invested cash I can't afford to keep in there much beyond late April, so hopefully it's around 800 by then.

My very amateur guess is that it's going to continue upward at ~1% a day for the next month, putting it in the 700s, and then propel into the 800s after strong Q2 earnings. It'll stabilize a little bit -- maybe move back down into the mid 700s, before the iPhone 5 + Q3 earnings come out, sending it back above 800. If they announce their Apple branded television set this year, they'll hit 1000. I think next year will be interesting, however. I don't see iPad sales keeping pace on a year to year basis like they have been. I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple introduce some sort of smaller and cheaper iPad and iPhone for those who want to jump into tablets but can't necessarily afford.

One of these years, Apple product fatigue is going to set in. I see very early signs of that happening now, if based on nothing more than anecdotal evidence (more friends than usual switching to Android, and considering switching to an Android phone when I can).

But if Apple tackles new markets (budget tablets, television set), that could all change.


I'd be very surprised if it didn't touch over $800 with the 4 year product pipeline (I did not know this. Thank you) and the Apply branded TV coming out. Not sure how much you have invested, your situation, or what your basis is, but maybe pull some off the table at $800 and let some capital ride. Just set a stop at some percentage below say $800 to protect gains.

Steelknife wrote:
One of these years, Apple product fatigue is going to set in. I see very early signs of that happening now, if based on nothing more than anecdotal evidence (more friends than usual switching to Android, and considering switching to an Android phone when I can).


This is inevitable, IMO. Companies can only stay in a rapid growth/growth stage making economic profits for so long before other firms jump in and erode marketshare. I will say however that with Apple's balance sheet and scale this is going to be very hard to do for some small, unknown firm to do. You'll see market share erosion from the Google's and Microsofts of the world. You're already seeing it with the Android platform on smartphones. You also have the competition between Microsoft and Apple, Mac vs. PC that has been going on for years. The funny thing is, the easiest product to replicate was the iPod, and not one company has put out something that has even dented the share of the market that iPod's have. In fact, Apple took marketshare from their own iPod's when they introduced the iPhone. Do you really need both now? I don't think so.

In my opinion, the worst case scenario for Apple when it hits that mature stage is Google, and that is by no means a bad thing.

I wish I bought it at $200. Stupid, stupid, stupid. :evil:

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 Post subject: Re: AAPL Stock
 Post Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:17 pm 
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Steelknife wrote:
Deebo wrote:
Congrats to whoever had a buy limit order at 550! You probably got executed on a computer glitch!


:lol: :lol:

Would that actually be honored?


That's a good question. I thought they voided all those trades.

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 Post subject: Re: AAPL Stock
 Post Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:23 pm 
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Fan Of STEEL wrote:
Steelknife wrote:
I'm no financial analyst...quite amateur actually.

Got lucky and threw some money I had sitting into savings into AAPL last week (better late than never). Not much...just a few shares. They just announced a pretty big dividend and a stock buy back program. Sent the stock up today.

After hours they announced they've sold 3 million ipads in 3 days -- not including pre-orders (supposedly). Should send it even higher tomorrow.

Wouldn't be surprise to see it at $700 by the end of the month, and $1k by year's end.

Might be worth a look!

*not financial advice*

Any one else play the amateur investment game?


Other than land, the only thing I have invested in is gold and silver. I bought 100 ounces of gold in the early 80s for a few hundred dollars an ounce. I sold half of those this year for around $1900 an ounce. I bought more a few years ago but the price was not near what it was in the 80s but has still doubled in the price I bought it for. If any of you have old gold jewelry sitting around I suggest you sell it for the scrap price. It's amazing what they are paying for it today. I also suggest silver an an investment. But if you buy make sure it is .999 because a lot of that crap out there they are selling is not worth what they are asking for and is often just a coin or inget covered in a thin linning of gold or silver.


Good for you buying gold! That investment killed it for you. As long as the printing press is working overtime this should continue to pay off. I do think this will slow down in the next 2-3 years but Goldman Sachs seems dead set on another round of quantitiative easing so maybe gold continues to hit new highs for years to come if they are right.

Where do you own land, FOS?

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 Post subject: Re: AAPL Stock
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 2:18 pm 
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StillerInCT wrote:
Steelknife wrote:
StillerInCT wrote:
I've seen analysts predict the price to touch $900. I don't know that there is a better positioned company out there. Even without leveraging their capital structure they have an ROE of 42%, so it's basically driven by profit margin and asset turnover, which is what you want to see. In theory, and assuming the dividend and share buyback were one offs, then they can conceivably sustain a growth rate of about 42%. But they'd need to reinvest and stop hoarding the cash.

My concern with Apple is can they maintain their level of innovation? Steve Jobs (RIP) was the ultimate marketer and knew what we wanted before we even knew we wanted it. It's too early to tell with Cook, but if they can't continue to innovate I would guess they'd start growing through horizontal (Not vertical through the supply chain) acquisitions. That is where I would hop off the train because it would signal to me that they're entering the mature stage and their acquiring for growth. I'd prefer to see them continue to grow organically through new products and new markets (obviously).

The ride will end, it always does, but I think Apple has a few more years of accelerated growth if they can continue to figure out what us consumers really want. Eventually they'll have to do more than come out with the incremental changes to the iPhone and iPad and give us something new. Otherwise the product will start to get stale as we get tired of shelling out another $300 for a few upgrades.

So will it hit $900? $1000? It very well could. But the market is irrational, so who really knows?


Jobs left 4 years of new products in the pipeline. If 2015/2016 roll around and Apple suddenly starts faltering, you'll know why.

I'm thinking I'll sell at the end of April sometime after their Q2 earnings. Unfortunately, I invested cash I can't afford to keep in there much beyond late April, so hopefully it's around 800 by then.

My very amateur guess is that it's going to continue upward at ~1% a day for the next month, putting it in the 700s, and then propel into the 800s after strong Q2 earnings. It'll stabilize a little bit -- maybe move back down into the mid 700s, before the iPhone 5 + Q3 earnings come out, sending it back above 800. If they announce their Apple branded television set this year, they'll hit 1000. I think next year will be interesting, however. I don't see iPad sales keeping pace on a year to year basis like they have been. I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple introduce some sort of smaller and cheaper iPad and iPhone for those who want to jump into tablets but can't necessarily afford.

One of these years, Apple product fatigue is going to set in. I see very early signs of that happening now, if based on nothing more than anecdotal evidence (more friends than usual switching to Android, and considering switching to an Android phone when I can).

But if Apple tackles new markets (budget tablets, television set), that could all change.


I'd be very surprised if it didn't touch over $800 with the 4 year product pipeline (I did not know this. Thank you) and the Apply branded TV coming out. Not sure how much you have invested, your situation, or what your basis is, but maybe pull some off the table at $800 and let some capital ride. Just set a stop at some percentage below say $800 to protect gains.


I love Apple products and love the company but I wouldn't bet on the iTV being the next big hit. I can't see it being the game changer like the ipod/iphone/ipad. I'm sure it will be a great product but unlike Apple's other products it is not something I can envision people upgrading frequently. This isn't a product in which you can roll out the next generation of the hardware every couple of years and expect people will trade up.


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 Post subject: Re: AAPL Stock
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:46 pm 
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SteelPro wrote:
StillerInCT wrote:
Steelknife wrote:
StillerInCT wrote:
I've seen analysts predict the price to touch $900. I don't know that there is a better positioned company out there. Even without leveraging their capital structure they have an ROE of 42%, so it's basically driven by profit margin and asset turnover, which is what you want to see. In theory, and assuming the dividend and share buyback were one offs, then they can conceivably sustain a growth rate of about 42%. But they'd need to reinvest and stop hoarding the cash.

My concern with Apple is can they maintain their level of innovation? Steve Jobs (RIP) was the ultimate marketer and knew what we wanted before we even knew we wanted it. It's too early to tell with Cook, but if they can't continue to innovate I would guess they'd start growing through horizontal (Not vertical through the supply chain) acquisitions. That is where I would hop off the train because it would signal to me that they're entering the mature stage and their acquiring for growth. I'd prefer to see them continue to grow organically through new products and new markets (obviously).

The ride will end, it always does, but I think Apple has a few more years of accelerated growth if they can continue to figure out what us consumers really want. Eventually they'll have to do more than come out with the incremental changes to the iPhone and iPad and give us something new. Otherwise the product will start to get stale as we get tired of shelling out another $300 for a few upgrades.

So will it hit $900? $1000? It very well could. But the market is irrational, so who really knows?


Jobs left 4 years of new products in the pipeline. If 2015/2016 roll around and Apple suddenly starts faltering, you'll know why.

I'm thinking I'll sell at the end of April sometime after their Q2 earnings. Unfortunately, I invested cash I can't afford to keep in there much beyond late April, so hopefully it's around 800 by then.

My very amateur guess is that it's going to continue upward at ~1% a day for the next month, putting it in the 700s, and then propel into the 800s after strong Q2 earnings. It'll stabilize a little bit -- maybe move back down into the mid 700s, before the iPhone 5 + Q3 earnings come out, sending it back above 800. If they announce their Apple branded television set this year, they'll hit 1000. I think next year will be interesting, however. I don't see iPad sales keeping pace on a year to year basis like they have been. I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple introduce some sort of smaller and cheaper iPad and iPhone for those who want to jump into tablets but can't necessarily afford.

One of these years, Apple product fatigue is going to set in. I see very early signs of that happening now, if based on nothing more than anecdotal evidence (more friends than usual switching to Android, and considering switching to an Android phone when I can).

But if Apple tackles new markets (budget tablets, television set), that could all change.


I'd be very surprised if it didn't touch over $800 with the 4 year product pipeline (I did not know this. Thank you) and the Apply branded TV coming out. Not sure how much you have invested, your situation, or what your basis is, but maybe pull some off the table at $800 and let some capital ride. Just set a stop at some percentage below say $800 to protect gains.


I love Apple products and love the company but I wouldn't bet on the iTV being the next big hit. I can't see it being the game changer like the ipod/iphone/ipad. I'm sure it will be a great product but unlike Apple's other products it is not something I can envision people upgrading frequently. This isn't a product in which you can roll out the next generation of the hardware every couple of years and expect people will trade up.


Nah, but I imagine before they do it they'll unveil some sort of netflix-esque subscription service for their itunes movies/tv shows, giving them substantial recurring revenue without having to release new tech every year.

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 Post subject: Re: AAPL Stock
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 4:56 pm 
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StillerInCT wrote:
Good for you buying gold! That investment killed it for you.
Where do you own land, FOS?


When I bought that gold I was not sure it was a good idea and seemed like a lot of cash at the time.


I am in Ferndale California and also in Fort Bragg California. I kind of wish I would have sold the property in Fort Bragg a couple years ago because I got it for dirt cheap and the price when up so far it was crazy. Then the bottom fell out of the market and the price of land went down and nobody is really buying right now.

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