I know it has been talked about before on here, and what I'm about to post is probably a waste of time, but it's always interesting to look at our past official visits compared with who the Steelers actually drafted those years (as will this thread be interesting to check back on after draft weekend). Here's the links for the past three years of visits:

2011 - http://steelerfury.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=12790&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&hilit=official+visits+thread

2010 - http://steelerfury.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5770&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&hilit=prospects+visits

2009 - http://steelerfury.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=28&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&hilit=prospects+visits

Some running thoughts:

-- In those three years, the Steelers drafted 26 players. 10 of those 26 players had either taken an official visit or were considered a local visit.

-- Generally, the position that sees the most visitors brought in does see that position drafted in multiple numbers. In 2011, a position leading 7 CBs were brought in for a visit, with 2 CBs being drafted that year. In 2010, a position leading 8 WRs visited, with 2 WRs drafted. In 2009, a position leading 8 CBs were brought in for a visit and 2 were drafted.

-- Interestingly enough, when a position led the way in the number of visits, players from that position pool who specifically visited were drafted by us in all but one instance. In 2011 we looked at 7 CBs, 2 were drafted, and those two were both official visitors in Allen and Brown. In 2010 we looked at 8 WRs, 2 were drafted, and those two were official visitors in Sanders and Brown. In 2009 we looked at 8 CBs, 2 were drafted, and one was an official visitor (Joe Burnett) while the other was rumored to have visited but technically didn't (Keenan Lewis). Although this could be a Baron Batch situation where Lewis might have visited like Batch supposedly did, although Batch isn't listed as an official visitor in 2010. All this says: while only 38% of our draftees were visitors, when we drafted from the position we scouted the most in a draft season, 83% of the time we ended up drafting a player that visited.

-- The outcome of the positions we drafted was greatly influenced by the positions we looked at with our visits. In 2009 only 4 out of our 30 visits were from a position we didn't end up addressing in the draft: Phil Loadholt (OT), Lawrence Sidbury (LB), Louis Delmas (S), and Spence Adkins (LB). In 2010, only 5 of the 30 visits were from positions we didn't later draft: Earl Thomas (S), Mike Iupati (G), Darrell Stuckey (S), Jacques McClendon (G), and Linval Joseph (DT). This is somewhat debatable since I consider Chris Scott a drafted RT prospect, but if we consider him a drafted guard, which would eliminate Iupati and McClendon here, there we no tackles drafted then and an equal amount of tackles scouted that weren't drafted (2). In 2011 we saw 11 of 30 visits come from positions not drafted: Denarius Moore (WR), Edmund Gates (WR), Austin Pettis (WR), Greg Little (WR), Vincent Brown (WR), Julius Thomas (TE), Weslye Saunders (TE), Kenrick Ellis (DT), Phil Taylor (DT), Frank Kearse (DT), and Anthony Gray (DT). It should be noted that we only had 7 picks in 2011, as opposed to 10 picks in 2010 and 9 picks in 2009. Overall, even with 2011's inflated numbers, that still only produces 22% of our 30 visitors coming from positions we didn't draft.

So what does all this tell us for this year?

So far, we've had 25 official visits. We currently have 10 picks in the upcoming draft.

Odds are that 4 of those picks will come from this pool of 30 that's coming together.

Interestingly enough, this is the first year that either CB or WR didn't lead the way in visits (or come close really). It looks like the Steelers like the young players they have at those two positions.

So far, we've brought in more OLBs (4) than any other position. While there are still 5 visitors left to be announced, there are only two other positions that really have a chance to reasonably overtake OLB, those being ILB (3 brought in), and TE (3 brought in). Those are the only three positions with 3 or more players represented in our current visitor pool.

Whatever position ends up leading the way in number of visits, there's an 83% chance based on our three year sample that two players from that visitor group at that position will be Steelers on draft day. And since all of those picks from the most scouted position in our three year sample were mid to late rounders (Burnett and Lewis as CBs in '09, Sanders and Brown as WRs in '10, and Brown and Allen as CBs in 2011), reasonably we could guess that those players will only come from the projected mid to late round pool. For those positions, those players are:

OLB: Cam Johnson and Ronnell Lewis
ILB: Mychal Kendricks and Jerrell Harris
TE: Two from Michael Egnew, David Paulson, and Lardarius Webb

I'll update this once the official 30 is known, but there's a good chance based off this very small sample size that whatever position ends up being scouted the most will produce two mid to late round picks that come from our official visitor list. If it holds up now with OLB leading the way, there's a 83% chance based on this three year look that both Cam Johnson and Ronnell Lewis will be drafted as Steelers. Once again though, this can completely change given our last five visits to come and the fact that this small sample size might amount to nothing. Plus, if there's a tie in the number of positions scouted, I don't know what to make of that either hehe. Should be fun to keep an eye on though. Again, I'll update some thoughts here once the other five visitors are known.

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“It’s not hunger that drives me, it’s not hunger that needs to drive our football team. Hunger and thirst are things that can be quenched. We have to be a driven group, we have to seek greatness.” – Mike Tomlin

Add Green to your TE group.

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everyone is entitled to their own opinion but not their own facts

I think that's who he means by Lardarius Webb.

TB, this is fascinating. I really appreciate the analysis. It seems notable that no position seems likely to feature 7-8 visitors, unless the last five visits lean heavily in one direction. This year, we may not have that clear position of interest.

Yeah, that should have been Ladarius Green for the tight ends, not Webb.

If nothing else, there's at least a recent trend of the position getting scouted with the most visitors resulting in multiple mid to late round selections that come directly from that year's visitors pool. It's also interesting that in each of the last three years there has been no first rounder selected from the position scouted the most. Maybe that holds up this season, or maybe not. It's just something slightly interesting to me hehe.

_________________
“It’s not hunger that drives me, it’s not hunger that needs to drive our football team. Hunger and thirst are things that can be quenched. We have to be a driven group, we have to seek greatness.” – Mike Tomlin

Great analysis...Thanks for posting.

awesome analysis -- quality post right there -- A+++ work

can't wait for your updated analysis

if it holds true, maybe we draft OL in first round this year, which would make me happy if we get the right guy.

Fill the gaps at TE and ILB after round 1

There used to be a time that some would argue following official visits wasn't worth it because they felt the team used the visits as a smokescreen. I think if you follow this long enough and trace back to who they brought in and ultimately drafted, you'll see quite a few of the visits turn into draft picks or UDFA signings.

2009
1 AQ Shipley - C - PSU (drafted rd 7)
4. Joe Burnett - CB - Central Florida (drafted rd 5)
5. Frank Summers - RB - UNLV (drafted rd 5)
6. Rashon Harris - DE - Oregon (drafted rd 6)

2010
22. Maurkice Pouncey - C - Florida -(drafted 1st rd)
28. Emmanuel Sanders - WR - (drafted rd 3)
29. Antonio Brown - WR -(drafted rd 6)
2. Dorin Dickerson - TE - Pitt(later signed briefly as an UFA)

2011
3. OT - Marcus Gilbert - Florida (Drafted rd 2)
15. TE - Weslye Saunders - S. Carolina (UDFA)
19. NT - Anthony Gray - Southern Miss (UDFA)
22. ILB - Mario Harvey - Marshall (UDFA)
23. CB - Cortez Allen - Citadel (Drafted rd 4)
25. CB - Curtis Brown - Texas (Drafted rd 3)

Absurdly good work TB. nicely done sir!

Great info and insight as always Perch...I'm far too lazy to look it up but weren't Heyward and 6th rd pick Keith Williams also in for an official visit last year?

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