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SteelPro
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Posted: Wed Mar 28, 2012 9:14 am |
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Joined: Thu Mar 12, 2009 2:20 pm Posts: 3381
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Steelknife wrote: SteelPro wrote: StillerInCT wrote: Steelknife wrote: Jobs left 4 years of new products in the pipeline. If 2015/2016 roll around and Apple suddenly starts faltering, you'll know why.
I'm thinking I'll sell at the end of April sometime after their Q2 earnings. Unfortunately, I invested cash I can't afford to keep in there much beyond late April, so hopefully it's around 800 by then.
My very amateur guess is that it's going to continue upward at ~1% a day for the next month, putting it in the 700s, and then propel into the 800s after strong Q2 earnings. It'll stabilize a little bit -- maybe move back down into the mid 700s, before the iPhone 5 + Q3 earnings come out, sending it back above 800. If they announce their Apple branded television set this year, they'll hit 1000. I think next year will be interesting, however. I don't see iPad sales keeping pace on a year to year basis like they have been. I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple introduce some sort of smaller and cheaper iPad and iPhone for those who want to jump into tablets but can't necessarily afford.
One of these years, Apple product fatigue is going to set in. I see very early signs of that happening now, if based on nothing more than anecdotal evidence (more friends than usual switching to Android, and considering switching to an Android phone when I can).
But if Apple tackles new markets (budget tablets, television set), that could all change. I'd be very surprised if it didn't touch over $800 with the 4 year product pipeline (I did not know this. Thank you) and the Apply branded TV coming out. Not sure how much you have invested, your situation, or what your basis is, but maybe pull some off the table at $800 and let some capital ride. Just set a stop at some percentage below say $800 to protect gains. I love Apple products and love the company but I wouldn't bet on the iTV being the next big hit. I can't see it being the game changer like the ipod/iphone/ipad. I'm sure it will be a great product but unlike Apple's other products it is not something I can envision people upgrading frequently. This isn't a product in which you can roll out the next generation of the hardware every couple of years and expect people will trade up. Nah, but I imagine before they do it they'll unveil some sort of netflix-esque subscription service for their itunes movies/tv shows, giving them substantial recurring revenue without having to release new tech every year. I don't think Apple wants any part of bartering volatile content deals for a subscription services. Selling digital copies is a completely different animal than a service of entitlement viewing rights. There has been speculation that someday some company would become a virtual cable provider. The thought was they'd bundle similar cable packages like cable, satellite, and other MSOs but deliver over the net at a rate that would undercut the traditional providers. Microsoft was the last known company pursuing it. After 5 years of trying they dropped the idea. Too many obstacles to make it work. When you have certain cable companies that own large content libraries and networks and control the delivery pipe line, that is too tough to overcome.
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Steelknife
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Posted: Wed Mar 28, 2012 10:55 am |
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Joined: Thu Mar 12, 2009 3:37 pm Posts: 6116 Location: New York, NY
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I think apple has actually been trying it and trending in that direction, but it is difficult.
Their newly announced ability to watch shows you buy on one device on any apple device is a step in that direction,IMO.
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Deebo
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Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:56 pm |
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Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2010 2:48 pm Posts: 3172
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So who bought before earnings? Up 43 dollars after hours. Thought about buying May 600 calls but they were ten bucks, so you need 610 third week of may to break even. Fucking criminals on the premiums....
You either have to buy stock or sell calls...
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Steelknife
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Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 5:46 pm |
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Joined: Thu Mar 12, 2009 3:37 pm Posts: 6116 Location: New York, NY
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I sold during the pullback. I had invested money I need for bills (that was just sitting in savings) starting in May and couldn't risk losing money. Didn't entirely trust this quarters earnings. Wish I had sold when it hit $640 like I had originally planned, but alas, got greedy and hoped for $700. Sold at around $595 after buying at $585. Sad I don't have the expendable income to keep in it. It'll be at 1k by years end.
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Deebo
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Posted: Mon May 14, 2012 10:48 am |
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Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2010 2:48 pm Posts: 3172
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Just bought some more at 563ish on pullback. Hoping for a run to 600 on OPEX mischief this week.
The precious metals are looking cheap here too, may try to hit some PAAS today.
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Steelknife
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Posted: Mon May 14, 2012 11:11 am |
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Joined: Thu Mar 12, 2009 3:37 pm Posts: 6116 Location: New York, NY
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You got a good buy. It's in a lull right now but don't be fooled. It'll still come close to 1000 this year, especially if the rumored Macbook refresh, the new iPhone, and the iTV all come to pass.
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SteelPro
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Posted: Mon May 14, 2012 12:04 pm |
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Joined: Thu Mar 12, 2009 2:20 pm Posts: 3381
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During election year cycles it is generally best to dump in May and buy in October.
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Deebo
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Posted: Mon May 14, 2012 4:58 pm |
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Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2010 2:48 pm Posts: 3172
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Yes but this year I think the market will rally in June when Obamacare gets dumped by the Supremes. Then sell into the rally.
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Deebo
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Posted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 10:04 am |
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Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2010 2:48 pm Posts: 3172
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Back in here 620s after getting stopped out a month ago. Looking for a bounce to 700 and beyond.
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Donnie Brasco
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Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 7:49 am |
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Joined: Thu Mar 12, 2009 6:03 pm Posts: 6889 Location: NW Ohio
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Deebo wrote: Yes but this year I think the market will rally in June when Obamacare gets dumped by the Supremes. . Very disappointing
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I'm sick of hearing 'bout the have and have-not's Have some personal accountability The biggest problem with the way that we are doing things is The more we let you have, the less that I'll be keeping for me
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